Fortune teller

[secretperson]

Simple question really- Do the effects of multiple fortune tellers stack?

[chrispedersen]

yes.

[Wick]

It depends what you mean by stack. The chances aren't added but each one gets a chance of stopping each bad event.

[Edi]

Yes, in the sense that each fortune teller checks separately for prevention. No, as in their abilities are not additive.

[secretperson]

Interesting! Thanks for the responses!

It's been wayyyy too long since high school statistics... How would this look statistically?

[chrispedersen]

its better than adding.
2 5% chances > 1 10% chance, as you have the small possibility of cancelling two events.

Well, I meant "is better" by the > sign.

I grant that the math has been elegantly presented and is right. However, I wonder if there is a way to test this.
I raise the question for the following reasons:

If you mod 5 10% chances of a dominions magic random - they get summed into 1 50% chance. (Try it). I wonder if that same approach hasn't been done to fortune tellers.

The second reason I wonder is because around 20 fortune tellers, I don't seem to ever get bad random events.
If I get industrious.. I'll run a test on that.

[Kaljamaha]

secretperson said:
Interesting! Thanks for the responses!

It's been wayyyy too long since high school statistics... How would this look statistically?



It's binomial distribution. Look up the correct row from Pascal's triangle. So, for example, if you have three fortune tellers (5) in a province, the chance that at least one of them prevents an event is:

0.05^3 + 3 * 0.05^2 * 0.95 + 3 * 0.05 * 0.95^2 = 14.2625%

Or, if you prefer the easy way, its:

1 - (1 - 0.05)^3


K.

[llamabeast]

its better than adding.
2 5% chances > 1 10% chance, as you have the small possibility of cancelling two events.



This isn't really correct. The chance of blocking at least one event is less than 10% for two 5% fortune tellers. Of course there is a chance of blocking two events, but most often that will be irrelevant as there won't be two events trying to happen there anyway.

[Agrajag]

If an event attempts to get past fortune tellers, then 20 fortune tellers with 5% will have ~64% of stopping that event.
The formula goes: 1-(1-P)^n, P is the probability of stopping an event (0.05 in this case), and n is the number of fortune tellers (20 in this case).

Explanation: The chance for a fortune teller to prevent the event is P, so the chance of the event getting past that fortune teller is (1-P), so the chance for getting past all of the fortune tellers is (1-P)^n, so if we want to see what the chance of the event not getting past all of the fortune tellers we get 1-(1-P)^n.

(Feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/tongue.gif)

[Sombre]

You're mistaken.

The goat is actually behind door number 4, the door you came in through.

[DeathDaemon]

Do fortune tellers only prevent events in their current province (where they start/end?) or for your entire nation?

[Aezeal]

current province

[GrudgeBringer]

Ya know....

I am 57 years old.

I have a degree in Culturel Anthropology and a Minor in Psychology.

I own a succesful company.

I play no-limit poker every day at the casino and can whip off the correct statistics and odds for your probabilities of drawing or receiving cards to help that hand in a flash.

I am very competitive and still play full contact (Union) Rugby evey weekend.

I have had this game 30 days and have started it over maybe 60 times in SP, have asked maybe 100 questions, and even understood maybe 65% of the answers.

However, when I see the depth of some of the answers to questions on here AND the equations and math to back it up....I am astounded at the intelligence and understanding of this game and realize...I may NEVER win a game in MP in my life ...

Just ONE thing....Please tell me that I am not about to take a thrashing from some 10 year old gentleman (or lady).

[Endoperez]

Spring 2004, DomII forum:

Less than 15: 1, 1 %
15-19: 6, 5 %
20-24: 24, 18%
25-29: 31, 23%
30-34: 33, 25%
35-39: 18, 14%
40-44: 12, 9%
45-49: 4, 3%
50-54: 3, 2%
55-59: 0, 0%
60 or more: 1, 1%

total votes: 133


It's so outdated that only a couple of posters from the thread are still active, but I guess it represents the community pretty well.

[JimMorrison]

GrudgeBringer said:
...Just ONE thing....Please tell me that I am not about to take a thrashing from some 10 year old gentleman (or lady).




Well, take comfort in the fact that this isn't some twitch action game where the kiddies reign supreme. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/tongue.gif Dom takes a lot of patience and thoughtfulness to really excel at, so I'd think you have a fair shot. at it. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Saxon]

I would guess that all the ages on the survey have slid 3 years upwards. Dom seems to hold players pretty well. I know I changed age categories in the last four years… Perhaps that is just my two year old daughter running around and making me feel older though.

GrudgeBringer,

I doubt you will get whipped by a 10 year old. With age comes wisdom and that helps a lot with the diplomacy in MP. If you are running a successful company, I assume you can negotiate a mutually beneficial deal, which will help you a lot in MP. Of course, if you still play rugby union in the scrum, you may lack the subtly needed for some parts of the game. But if you are in the backs, you are pretty boy and beyond hope in any case. You can guess where I played.

More helpfully, don’t count on winning. Most games have 10 or more players and even if only two or three are good, it is still a tough road to victory. But if you do win, victory will be far, far sweeter than against the AI. Also, expect to put some real time in if you are playing seriously. The turns have to come in on time and you have to spend some quality time to make sure your turns are good. Perhaps more important is the diplomatic negotiations. You have to talk to a lot of people, a lot of the time. It isn’t work, it is fun, but if you are seriously competitive (which I sense you may be) know that you can get sucked into this.

To put it in perspective, I had to cut a deal with my wife. One last game of MP, then no more. SP is fine, but the time and deadline demands for MP were too much for us. In other words, you may have to cut back on your poker…

[Cerlin]

full time girlfriend and full time japanese job definitely cut into my dominions 3 mp time... sadness ensues.

[sansanjuan]

Sax: ...To put it in perspective, I had to cut a deal with my wife. One last game of MP, then no more. SP is fine, but the time and deadline demands for MP were too much for us. In other words, you may have to cut back on your poker…



Sax,
Only way is to play late at night after she is in bed or early in the morning (be sure to put the coffee on before playing). http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif
My $0.02,
_SSJ

[Zeldor]

Cerlin:

You should try to visit irc anyway http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif I wish I could live in Japan too...

[JimMorrison]

Cerlin said:
full time girlfriend and full time japanese job definitely cut into my dominions 3 mp time... sadness ensues.




A Japanese girlfriend? I would swear off gaming forever. >.>

Though, I am still hoping for a Korean GF, who will complain if I don't game with her enough. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/tongue.gif