Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
 

Unless the "Soviet" (yes I used that work on purpose) mindset has changed since the 1970's when I was in the Intelligence business they're big believers in "Fait Accompli", do something quickly then stop at a point of their choosing and tell the rest of the world to "get over it".

If they want the Baltic States their seizure of certain German, Polish, Norwegian, and Swedish targets while also making that objective easier also gives them something to "withdraw from and return" in order to create the illusion they're not getting to keep everything they want. But, of course, the reality is they only really wanted the parts they wind up keeping.

Take that analysis for what it's worth from someone that's been out of the Intel/Intentions business for over 40 years.

Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
 

I would use the Crimea as an example of that analysis being absolutely correct

Don

Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
 

The article (bild.de) assets the recent Russian exercises not as a grab for the Baltic states, but rather as a strike against NATO. Furthermore, the attacks on Germany, Poland, Norway, and the other countries mentioned are bombing targets and missile strikes, nothing about seizing territory. Troubling.

If Putin wanted the Baltics, then taking control of harbors, airfields, etc would not require striking other NATO countries. I dare say, strikes on Poland or Sweden and Norway would plunge into WWW3. While taking control of methods of ingress (Baltics) would suffice with a lower chance of a military NATO response.

BTW, has anyone read of the number of heavy armor formations in the Baltics, and has America stationed an additional carrier strike group in the Baltic sea?

Great read and excellent post.
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Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
 

Myself I'm not convinced the Russians are really ready to take the plunge, but there is enough stuff going on to make what-if scenarios that would not be too far fetched IMO(and some have already been made, like Grant1pa's Norwegian/Finnish ones :up:)



https://www.military.com/daily-news/...mpression=true

Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
 

Yeah, I think you're right,"...there is enough stuff going on..." and the context is right for scenarios.

I also noted that Sargent Major Green holds a masters in Cybersecurity Policy from the University of Maryland University College. And, that the article (military.com) refers to the recently released National Security Strategy wherein the document discussed Russia's practice of "using information tools" to interfere with other nations' democracies and militant aggression that crosses borders.

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Re: Russian Invasion of the Baltic States
 

Could Poland's Tanks Stop Russia in a War?
(Gao, Johnny, Nationalinterest.org, 23 March 2018)

A very good article.

A commentator made the following comment: "Forget Russia, its payback time! How about Poland v Germany?"
Tongue in cheek, hopefully.

However, another commentor raised my eyebrow with the following: "...Pols are Slav and there is no way any real Russian will attack them." Wow, sounds like a Russian troll.
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