John, not sure where your rough guess and maths come from, but it pretty clear i the manual how this works (unless I am missing something).
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Set reinforcement turn for this unit, at the current hex. Set reinforcement chance, this is a percentage chance of arrival per turn, NOT a one shot chance. Therefore a reinforcement with a 10 per cent chance which does not arrive on the due turn will test again on each subsequent turn after its due turn as and until it makes the chance roll or the game ends, whichever comes first.
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