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Were Sweden and Finland to stay neutral, and neither are members of NATO, the Western alliance’s access to the air space over the Baltics would be severely limited within the first few hours, if not days, after the start of an invasion.
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While not part of NATO Sweden no longer describes itself as neutral and something that was hardly true even during the cold war, or even WWII - it is likely that Moscow now count Sweden as part of the "enemy camp" (and probably did back then as well).
As of 2009 Sweden issued the so called declaration of solidarity where it is stated that Sweden will not remain passive in the event of an attack of an EU or Nordic country - which basically means Russia must factor in the possible basing of NATO air in Sweden if the Baltic states are attacked. Should NATO go
"Pourquoi mourir pour Dantzig?" on the Baltic states Russia can pretty much ignore Sweden.