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Renegade 13 said:
- Israel invades Lebanon on the ground, says it's just defending it's sovereignty and trying to root out the terrorist Hezbollah.
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Already happened once a long time ago and that didn't lead to an all-out war. And conditions and potential for one were more ripe then.
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- Syria joins in on Lebanon's side, with Iran joining a little later.
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Iran and Syria won't join in the fight officially if they know what is good for them: Iran gets embargoed from the UN, and Syria's involvement would confirm that they officially support Hezbollah and all that they do, which will only give the Coalition of the Willing political ammo to enact regime change on them. As for unoffcial, off-the-records help, they're already there anyway, and even Israel won't acknowledge them, for fears of opening another front in this military action.
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- Now it's Israel against Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Israel can't take that much punishment,
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Pfffffft. Israel has the economic potential, the political will, the military might, and the technological edge to confront every nation it borders on with the exception of Saudi Arabia or Turkey. Not one of prolonged war of attrition, mind you, but then again most other nations can't.
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so it calls on it's allies in the region and around the world to help out...the US included. This would leave the US in quite the dilemma. Do you help the state that you've supported militarily for the past 60 years, or do you stand back and see what happens when the dust settles?
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A better statement would be: Do you help the state that happens to be the Middle East's only functional liberal democracy, that happens to be quite multiethnic also, and who has been a staunch supporter of US Middle East policy for 60 years, or do you see it wrecked by fundies who would like to see nothing more than every jew on the face of the earth exterminated and excremated?
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Some of Israels allies join in, followed by a whole bunch of the Arabic nations in the area.
- War spreads all over...
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Won't happen. Most you will see is the usual; oil prices go up, neighborhoods get wrecked, foreign fighters go and get themselves killed for virgins in heaven, and an eventual cease-fire that will interrupt things until the next full moon, or until when one of them crazy imams gets an itch he can't scratch.
If there is to be a world war, expect it will happen over Central Asia.