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  #11  
Old December 12th, 2018, 03:01 PM
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Default Re: Chance of Arrival in Unit Reinforcement

I like simple math and was never called to be a mathematician, in ASL there are folks that can recite the probability of rolling 2d6 for various things, in those days (and even to this day) I just squeeze my dice a litter tighter and whisper a prayer and roll the bones. Probably why I am not a gambler or risk taker in real life...lol
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Old December 12th, 2018, 06:28 PM
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Default Re: Chance of Arrival in Unit Reinforcement

Han Solo (and probably zovs66) should look away now...

For those that want the maths:

Use the “not” trick. If probability of a unit arriving is 20%, then the probability of not arriving is 80% (0.2 and 0.8 respectively).
Not arriving(X) in a number of turns(N) is X ^ N. Therefore The chance they arrive by a certain turn is 1 - X ^ N.

e.g.:
The chance of appearance in 1 turn is 20%, in 2 turns is 1 - (0.8 ^ 2) = 36% , in 3 turns is 1 - (0.8 ^ 3) = 48.8%, in 4 turns is 1-(0.8 ^ 4) = 59%, in 5 turns is 1-(0.8 ^ 5) = 67%, etc.

It never becomes a certainty, but there is a 99% chance that they will have arrived by turn 21!
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Last edited by scorpio_rocks; December 12th, 2018 at 06:43 PM..
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Old December 13th, 2018, 08:27 AM
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Default Re: Chance of Arrival in Unit Reinforcement

You lost me on
Quote:
Not arriving(X) in a number of turns(N) is X ^ N. Therefore The chance they arrive by a certain turn is 1 - X ^ N.
The rest was just some numbers wrapped in pretty characters...
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Old December 13th, 2018, 01:32 PM
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Talking Re: Chance of Arrival in Unit Reinforcement

Quote:
Originally Posted by scorpio_rocks View Post
Han Solo (and probably zovs66) should look away now...
LoL... Han Solo and his lucky dice.


Thanks for all contributions. Informative.


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Old December 14th, 2018, 05:10 AM
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Default Re: Chance of Arrival in Unit Reinforcement

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