OT: Even More Proof That PC's Are Dying

[Atrocities]

Follow the link and read for yourself.

Jap PC Use Drops

Where the Japs lead, the world follows.

[Phoenix-D]

I'm trying to figure out why someone would willingly use a cell phone as their primary internet device.

I'm, uh, not getting very far. Either the Japanese have really nice cell phones or really tiny hands and good eyes..

[Arkcon]

Phoenix-D said:
I'm trying to figure out why someone would willingly use a cell phone as their primary internet device.

I recently went to a job fair I'd signed up for, took a train to Boston, got there and realized -- I don't have directions handy, in fact I wasn't even sure of the name of the hotel. A wi-fi capable internet phone would have come in handy in that case, a quick email check, a quick web search, whatever.

At the moment I have the cheapest most no frills phone ever, and its adequate for talking to people. But I could see replacing my email and information gathering with a very capable phone device. Beats the ubiquitous bulky laptops everyone else on the train was trying to get their email with.

'Cousre it would never completely replace the PC, at least until MM codes Space Empires for the cell phone.

[Will]

Phoenix-D said:
I'm trying to figure out why someone would willingly use a cell phone as their primary internet device.

I'm, uh, not getting very far. Either the Japanese have really nice cell phones or really tiny hands and good eyes..

Correct on all three counts.

[frightlever]

Apart from the good eyes bit.

http://www.agingeye.net/myopia/3.1.php

[capnq]

Phoenix-D said: I'm trying to figure out why someone would willingly use a cell phone as their primary internet device.

For much the same reason that they send text messages rather than talking on the phone, because (they think) it's the cool thing to do.

Efficiency and ease of use are so yesterday.

[Santiago]

Phoenix-D said:
I'm trying to figure out why someone would willingly use a cell phone as their primary internet device.

A couple of reasons:

1. More people have cell phones than PC's. How many access the internet at work but don't have a pc at home?

2. Cell phone service is eminetly more widespread than wireless pc just about everywhere in the US and probably the world. Sure wireless pc is generally available in most major cities and airports, but not in smaller cities to such an extent, or towns and outlying areas. Cell phone coverage is. This may very well change.

3. Accessing the internet just walking down the street, on a bus or in a friend's car is much easier on a cell phone than a laptop. You have instant access everywhere you go, but the tradeoff is a small screen.

I don't have cell phone internet but I can see the advantages. It's the future whether we like it or not.

[dogscoff]

meh. The PC isn't dying, it's just changing shape. Evolving.

A lot of the PC's current applications (browsing, email)will move to the mobile, especially once those fancy roll up screens they've been promising come out. You may even have two portable screens in one phone-sized device, a little one like on your mobile now, and a bigger roll-up screen that feels more like a PSP or laptop or newspaper. The mobile device will probably start to take on some additional functions, like replacing the wedges of plastic that occupy most peoples' wallets (as it has in Japan- note that cash will never completely die though), and it may well start to see more use around the home: for example it will probably double as an input device (ie remote control) for your home system.

The landline will be dead by 2020.

A load more of the functions currently served by the PC (gaming, music, video, more browsing) will be integrated into your TV. Or rather, your TV will be replaced by a big monitor hooked up to what amounts to a media centre server. As I mentioned before, this will all be controlled by your mobile, which has all of the necessary interface functions built in anyway, and which will be so much a part of your life that you wouldn't dream of putting it down except when you're asleep.

It's worth noting that the boundaries between watching TV and browsing the web can be expected to blur significantly, as broadcasters finally give up on the idea of chaining all those discrete programs into one long continuous string that forces people to be sitting in front of their screen at a particular time (or at least get a machine to record it at the appropriate time), and start distributing them individually, on-demand, instead. I guess I'm saying the web will, eventually, eat TV.

Radio, strangely, will resist all this change and continue to be broadcast in pretty much the same format and occupy the same niche in peoples' lives as it always has, although the method of distribution will probably move mostly- if not completely- from raw radio signals to internet.

Your office will change too, with cool new screen/ interface technologies. Your desk will probably be a giant super-multi-touch input device/ haptic& optic output combo, which not only performs as a screen, but can scan papers put on it, simultaneously charge up and read data from portable devices placed on it and so on.

Microsoft, stupidly, will invent some new name for this, in the belief that the term "desktop" is outdated when it will actually be more appropriate than ever. The first few years of these things will be plagued by idiot users trying to write on them in biro, until someone invents a stylus/ pen hybrid that knows what's underneath it and only emits ink when its supposed to.

Your physical keyboard will be replaced by a virtual keyboard on the horizontal touch surface in front of you: It's cheaper, tidier, easier to reconfigure and doesn't get sandwich crumbs and hair stuck under the keys. The mouse will be obselete. Haptics will recreate the tactile qualities of a physical desk and keyboard: The desk will be able to reproduce textures under your fingers so you will still be able to fumble around and feel things and find things and shuffle them about and touch-type without actually having to look at your hands. You will still want a nice big vertical screen though, firstly to increase the screen real estate, but also because it's more comfortable to look straight ahead than down at your fingers all day. Think iphone meets minority report and you're probably about there. All this will probably be driven by the same machine that's running your media centre or, if you tele-commute (something else that will become more common) by the machine at the office, or by some clever collaboration between the two.

Office chairs will still only be fairly comfortable, until the discovery of the anti-gravity field in 2114.

Of course, there will be overlaps, and any one of these devices will be able to push/ pull data to any of the others and, to a certain extent, duplicate their functions, but they will be specialised. This will simply be because of their setting, their screen size, the interface and the user's habit rather than any other kind of hardware restriction. Until we get full-blown Borg brain implants that render screens and input devices completely obselete (first commercial models available late 2057, but I'd wait until Service pack 2 comes out if I were you), that's the way it will have to be.

But yeah, the PC as we know it, a big beige box that sits under your desk, will diminish massively. Enthusiasts and prefessionals will still want them, but most average people will just buy a series of sleek-looking, easy-to-use PC-based appliances that look and feel more like VCRs or stereos or consoles than computers, but have all the power of a PC behind them. The computer will be something that slides into the background, becomes invisible. Just as someone today might be well aware that there is a little computer in their washing machine or car's engine, but would still answer "no" if asked whether they owned a computer because they don't have a PC, people of the future will still not consider themselves computer-owners, despite having Jetson-style smart-home-systems. Your grandkids will be amazed that non-geeks used to buy computers and install their own software and drivers and battle with viruses and spam and basically manage and maintain the whole damn thing themselves, just to read email and browse pr0n and type a few letters.

An interesting side-effect of this will be the great re-geeking of 2014: As computers become invisible, so too will the people who love them. Geek-chic is in at the moment, because we are currently living in a strange in-between period when everyone has to have a computer[1], and so everyone wants to know a geek. As we move out of this era, the geeks will be gradually driven back into their basements...

[1]OK, no-one *has* to have a computer, and obviously I'm excluding the entire third world from the term "everyone" (although we'll see what the OLPC does for that) but you get my meaning.

[capnq]

"A new PC just isn't high on my priority list right now," said Igarashi, who was shopping at a Bic Camera electronics shop in central Tokyo and said his three-year-old desktop was "good for now."

Maybe they're just realizing that they don't have to upgrade their hardware every time the manufacturers change the color scheme of the motherboard.

[Renegade 13]

Phoenix-D said:
I'm trying to figure out why someone would willingly use a cell phone as their primary internet device.

I Heartily agree!

dogscoff said:
The landline will be dead by 2020.

This may (note: *may*) be true in the biggest of big cities, but other than that...I disagree. Eventually it'll be gone, but not that soon.

...start distributing them individually, on-demand, instead. I guess I'm saying the web will, eventually, eat TV.

Unlikely to occur; if it was all on-demand, etc., it would be far too easy to avoid commercials...and as you no doubt know, they can't allow that to happen. Quite possibly it'll be on-demand, but AFTER it has already been broadcast in a (relatively) conventional fashion.

...although the method of distribution will probably move mostly- if not completely- from raw radio signals to internet.

Again, I'll disagree. There are lots and lots of places in this world that do not have wireless internet access...even in 1st world countries. For that reason, radio will stay in it's current form, or perhaps migrate fully to the satellite radio form, but I doubt it'll be all or nearly all broadcast via the internet.

But yeah, the PC as we know it, a big beige box that sits under your desk, will diminish massively. Enthusiasts and prefessionals will still want them, but most average people will just buy a series of sleek-looking, easy-to-use PC-based appliances that look and feel more like VCRs or stereos or consoles than computers, but have all the power of a PC behind them.

I'll (predictably ) also disagree here. I think that the wholescale migration from something like your 'conventional' computer to mobile devices simply won't happen very quickly, if at all. No current or planned mobile device will ever be as comfortable to use; for example, screen size. Give me my 20" screen! Most people, I think, would rather have a larger, relatively immobile, and FAR more powerful computer for things like gaming, long-term internet browsing, work, etc.

As you can see, I personally disagree with the 'death' of the PC; it will have it's place for a long time yet I think. Then again, who really knows what the future will hold!