Quote:
Originally Posted by RightDeve
Is Cold War 2 really coming already?
There are proxy wars already between the Eagle and the Bear, in Syria and Ukraine. And another tension is brewing up in Poland. The South China Sea too, between China and United States and its allies.
I do hope that these won't escalate into what we fear so much.
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Without, I hope, getting too political I think a lot of the US/NATO - Russian problems, at the moment, are largely manufactured. Largely for historical reasons I support the NATO defence of Poland. The problem is some, including some portions of the political elite in the US, Germany and the EU, want that protection to extend to the Ukraine and the Baltic States.
These areas are not vital interests to the USA or Britain and they are simply not defensible with the conventional forces available to NATO today. If NATO tries to fight a defensive war East and/or North of Poland with conventional forces, short of a large proportion of luck combined with a vast proportion of Russian incompetence they would lose and probably lose badly. The sabre rattling going on at the moment is to me both foolish and ill advised, given that NATO has seldom been weaker in conventional military strength, let alone political will.
Russia has a legitimate sphere of influence that includes the Ukraine and the Baltic States. Statesmen such as Winston Churchill and Harry Truman, would see that immediately, while still urging their political freedom. To give a comparison if Canada or Mexico were wanting to join a generally anti US alliance my bet is the USA would be, rightly, very annoyed.
In case anybody needs reminding the recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan did not result in any kind of real Western victory. Not because our troops lacked training, skill, and bravery, but because our political elite, media and public (to various degrees) were unwilling to bear what were individually tragic, but historically relatively low casualty rates for the period required to achieve an actual victory. Something that, ironically, made the sacrifice of those who did die and get maimed largely pointless, I am very sorry to say.
In the Middle East, confusing as always, the West, to me, continues to back the wrong, anti-Government, horse, when the anti-Government side, in Islamic nations, is almost always the one that will give you yet more Islamist terrorists. In the Middle East the West wants, above anything else, peace and stability. Recent Western actions have destabilised the region, no more and no less. At one stage it was almost under control with large ground and air forces,
but see the paragraph above. Now we are dicking around with bombing raids, drones and Special Forces and getting annoyed with the Russians for backing Assad, why I am not at all sure, since the one thing Assad does not like is Islamist terrorists. I am not even going to mention the US support for Israel (that I, to at least some degree, agree with) or the confusion in US policy with regard to Iran, that makes no great sense to much more intelligent people than me.
I think there is a very strong case for a US/Western/NATO repprochement with Russia, that presents a relatively minor threat to Western Europe and almost none to the USA, short of a Nuclear exchange that no one, in their right minds, wants. In my day in the British Army (1980's) the general view was Russia and the Warsaw Pact might be able to push through Western Europe to the French Coast and NATO armies, including the British Army of the Rhine, had to cause them so many casualties the game was not worth the candle. I doubt anyone now really thinks Russia could do that today!
China, well there is a successful, rich, powerful, aggressive, expansionist, single party state with a Communist Government, that is a bigger long term threat to both Western nations and Russia than even Islamists are but they seem to get a free pass from many sections of society.
Apologies to anyone who thinks this is too political, but it was in answer to a question that I think does need an answer and one of them is that NATO outside the US, is not spending enough on defence and that NATO outside the US needs to spend at least 2.5% of GDP on defence (UK spends, just about 2%, with a bit of creative accounting, most NATO nations spend under 2% and some not much more than 1%, that is simply not enough to provide credible defence forces).
Again sorry for the 'political' rant, but it is actually about the military and defence and how NATO right now is just not doing what is required. If I get banned I will still like and support the game.
That post took me almost two hours. Lol.
Silver Lions are coming to Poland!
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