A Question on Norna

[tinkthank]

I did a search on +norna, but surprisingly turned up nothing, so here goes:

How exactly do they work? Does each Norn have a small chance of averting a bad luck event in that prov IF a bad luck event would have happened -- does it just become a non-event, or a good event? What if 5 Norn are in the same province -- are the chances 5x better that no bad luck event will occur? If so, is it cumulative or random -- e.g. If 20 are in the same prov, will there be ZERO chances of a bad luck event, or just a very slim chance?

[Endoperez]

Graeme dice posted this on thread "Question about Fortune Tellers", and gave a link that the forum upgrade destroyed.


The great seer prevents 75% of bad events in his province, the norna prevent 15%, and fortune tellers prevent 5%. This is most likely a 5% chance per fortune teller, checked individually.



The chance is that listed, and each Great Seer/Norna/Fortune Teller in that province gets his/her own check to cancel a bad event. I think that means (1-0.05)^n chance for n Fortune Tellers not canceling a bad event in the province they are located in.

[tinkthank]

Of course I cannot test this, but it *seems* that I am getting "positive good luck events" in provinces with Norns instead of bad luck events. I mean, instead of having a bad luck event canceled into oblivion and nothing happen, it appears that the bad luck event turns into a good one. Of course, it could also just be that a good event occured.
Does anybody know more about this? (How COULD one test this?)

[Alneyan]

24 Nornas in my capital city resulted in no event whatsoever for thirty turns, so I am thinking Nornas block *all* events, and not bad events alone. The other settings were Order 3, Productivity 3, Growth 3, Drain 3 and no independents; everything else is as default.

Keeping seven Nornas in the capital resulted in two events in 50 turns, both of them on the same turn, and both of them of the same kind (free gems). The other province with 17 Nornas had no events.

After 75 turns, two events happened in a row in the province with the 17 Nornas. Yet, my third province with no Norna does not seem to get many events either. Odd. I guess it calls for a new test, this time without Order.

[tinkthank]

Hey thanks -- I suppose testing with Turmoil would make sense. Thanks much!

[Alneyan]

Well, testing Utgard with Turmoil will not be possible, as Utgard requires Order 1 (there's always the Fortune Tellers though). I ran a test with Order 1/Misfortune 1, 25 Nornas in the capital, and got eight events in 90 turns, all of them good. I guess my previous theory of "Nornas block everything" was incorrect then.

[Alneyan]

The results of this lab controlled experience are as follow: the Nornas seem to stack their abilities, but do not convert bad events into good events.

The facts: 15 Nornas were enough to protect the capital from bad events for 100 turns, but four nasty events struck down the capital just after they left (two events in two turns). The odd for events was set to be much higher, and the odd of a bad event was set to well over 100%.

Given the quality of the Norna protection, I am inclined to believe their ability does stack. I believe the Nornas had a 9% chance to miss blocking any bad event, but they managed to catch all the bad events, and there were likely more than one event per turn. It would also explain why my 25 Nornas were enough to block all bad events for 200 turns, though they were much less likely to fail blocking an event (1% and some).

[odd_enuf]

heres another question, can nornas prevent bad events cause by doom horrors?

odd_enuf

[tinkthank]

Hey thanks Alneyan!
Bumping for Liga to add your experimental information, if he sees fit, to his Manual Addendum, where I think it belongs.

[Alneyan]

Odd_enuf, are you talking about horror attacks? If so, Nornas should not have any effect, as horror attacks are linked to horror marks instead.

On another note, I ran some of my tests for a while longer, and it clearly appears that seven Nornas are enough to make one province fully safe from events, while fewer Nornas will result in some events targetting you. For the purposes of event targetting, Nornas protect the province they are currently in, and not the one they move to.

[Endoperez]

Hm. I would have preferred the chances being cumulative, but not additive. That is (1-chance)^n chance of blocking the actual event, instead of (1-chance*n).

Any way, thanks for solving that out!

About Doom Horrors: Doom Horrors spontaneously cause bad events, and this events don't count towards and aren't limited by the 3-events/turn limit.

[liga]

tinkthank said:
Hey thanks Alneyan!
Bumping for Liga to add your experimental information, if he sees fit, to his Manual Addendum, where I think it belongs.



I would like to add it to the Addenda ... do you think it is better to add in the genral events section or relegate it to a subsection specific to the theme ?

good play and good work
Liga