Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

I recently played scenario 176 Trial by Fire and had a very difficult time killing the Green player's small units (snipers and scouts. I had often encountered this but since this scenario has so many small units it really made me wonder.

The hit odds would often be high yet it took several shots to cause a casualty.

When firing at a squad sized unit at hit odds of 50% about every other shot caused a casualty regardless of the current size of the squad.

When firing at a small unit (sniper/scout) at the same 50% odds it would often take 6-8 shots to score a single kill.

Are the displayed hit odds just inaccurate when firing at a small target or is there an additional calculation that the player does not see?

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

small units start off size zero, larger units are usually 1. I belive the scenario designer intentionally used smaller units that were harder to hit in that scenario

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

I understand that they are meant to be harder to hit but my question is whether or not the displayed hit odds are accurate. It is almost as if the odds displayed are to hit a larger unit and are not the true odds to hit the targeted smaller unit.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

The chance is for a hit, which is nothing to do with a kill. A hit can cause a morale check, or the unit to take cover or pull back for example. Or it may just be deemed a close miss, causing more than average suppression (soft units if near-missed can gain S). Or it may actually kill a crewman. A lot depends on the receiving unit's morale and experience ratings. Green and unkeen units will melt faster than veterans with high morale.

Thus the only thing you can say a largish %age shown as a potential to-hit score is a better shot than if a smaller %age was displayed. That and experience gained over many battles.

But size 0 units are a special case, where direct fire to-kill rolls tend to get converted to high suppression:
IF Range is long - so as range goes beyond 1 hex, they get more difficult to kill.
UNLESS using a sniper class. Best counter-sniper therefore is a sniper
OR its an HMG team. Next best option, with the bonus effect of blast circles "spreading the joy2 to any neighbours of the size 0 unit.

So - spread your fire over the size zeros, till they are suppressed and better in retreat or rout status. Then close and kill with a 1-hex shot in the face from a full size section, a tank or APC, better yet enter the hex and melee them with a rifle section or cavalry. Tiny units dont like the bayonet.

And of course, little teams get crucified by explosives. So liberally stonk any area you think they may be with your arty.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

I'm not so sure I understand hit odds either, but I suspect the chance has a wee bit to do with the weapon in slot #1. I committed fires from a M3A1 Bradley, the hit odds were not great but when the tow let loose the hit percentage shot up to 95%. I got the kill.

I've knocked out snipers by advancing with as many units as I can bring to bear on it. Suppression and bounding until the sniper has spent his load for the turn then I move in real close for the kill. It seems you gotta get close and personal.

Then I've knocked off snipers from distance with an ATHK helo firing auto cannon, rare though.

What puzzles me is a pinned unit. A unit is reported as pinned, I keep up suppression with my assault team regardless, because I do not know, and how could you unless he stops firing.

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Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

The "T" key dialogue only shows statistics for the slot 1 weapon, which is meant to be the main/primary weapon. It is therefore no great use for determining what the hit chance of a missile in slot 2 is.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Exactly. We are given hit chances on the weapon in slot #1.

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Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

I also suspect all the factors taken into account to determine a hit are not displayed. Due to the spaghetti nature of WinSPMBTs code some factors aren't applied until a actual attack is made.

I view the hit probability display as a general guideline not a hard-and-fast probability.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

What if you deactivate weapon #1 and use the T key? Will it show weapon2 prob? I know I could try it myself but I am eating ice cream with whipped cream at the moment. :D

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Haha. Good one. My weakness are Oreo cookies. So, when you finish the ice cream please let us know what you found.

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Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Did not change a thing. It just showed the same % no matter what weapon, so I cycled thru all my available targets till I found two Bavarian Creme filled Doughnuts with a 100% chance of being consumed. I'm afraid the crews failed their bail out %.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Haha. Now that's a good one. But, I stick with the oreos my man with an occasional frozen fruit bar.

Sometimes I'll try a crude calculation to get a fix on hit percentage by taking distance to target over range of weapon. It's very crude but that's all I got when the missile is not in slot #1.

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Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Pinned units can return fire if fired upon. Better to supress them with Z-fire with unit that's outside their LOS and then close in for the kill.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

As a real life anti-sniper drill, grenade launchers are a quick squad option. Snipers in WinSP hold their positions too long. Most snipers are going to take a few shots and move to their next position. A unit will cover all likely cover positions in an attempt to flush the sniper. If there was a way to have snipers retreat more when under fire they would become more of an elusive well trained threat than a 'die in place' defender.
Most snipers also operate in at least pairs so I often edit them to 2 or 3 men per sniper team when making a game.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Occasionally bad luck just happens and you feel jinxed. Like me once trying my map against AI and missing consecutively 6-8 90+% (the hit-% shown when firing) shots from tanks and ATGMs, getting my tanks destroyed by an approaching enemy horde I was unable to hit.

Really felt that day that I should buy a lottery ticket, just in case the inverse happens.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

If you get a day like that again, save the game, exit, reboot your computer and restart the save

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Keep in mind a hex in WinSPMBT is 500m across, lots of space for a sniper team to redeploy in apx. 250,000 sqm!

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

It;s 50 metres, not 500, but still a half a football field is a lot of ground to play whack a mole in.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

50m hex, approx 1600 m2 (point still stands however)

Edit: Ninja'ed by Mobhack while I looked up area of hex calc...

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

The best way I find to increase attack % vs a sniper is simply to get closer.
My best maneuver sniper drill technique (other than another sniper) translated into WINSP format is to suppress the sniper with supporting units (Z fire if needed) and move the nearest infantry closer using a move one hex/make one fire attack and then press the 'hide' key approach.
Smoking the sniper's frontage helps. Direct fire light mortars are quickest.

Re: Odds for hitting a sniper/scout unit
 

Oops ...