Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

You can find battle locations using NASA fire sensing satellites

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov...;@32.8,50.0,8z

Set your static background to Topographic and set your timeline to 7 days and you can find battles.

==================

KHARKOV last 7 days:

https://i.imgur.com/RzOhi3h.png

==================

KIEV last 24 hours:

https://i.imgur.com/Yxr3Edj.png

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Greece sent two C130 with ammo, AKs (no idea what models), AT weapons and "launchers". From what I understand the AKs are confiscated ones and some from former East German stock. What the launchers and the AT weapons are...no idea.

I also read today about two more C-130 with more military items in them, but not even the vague info of the previous shipment.

Not much info I know, but I thought to share it anyway.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Is there a need / use to extend the Chechen OoB dates to the present, in order to use them for the troops of Ramzan Kadyrov supporting / participating in the invasion of Ukraine?

OR do Chechen formations need adding into the Russian OoB?

OR are they effectively no different in game terms to "standard" Russian troops?

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

.........no different in game terms to "standard" Russian troops

If used in a scenario they could be renamed and ID taged easily enough but we are not reactivating the Chechen OOB.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

This photo of them if you converting to lbm will be great. Now in scenerio editor is possible to attach individual lbm's without use them in OOB. They are sort of Special unit or OMON internal troops (equivalent of Praetorians in acient Rome)

https://ipla.pluscdn.pl/dituel/cp/ts...p5w9mhksqq.jpg

BTW. is sad that Chechen OOB is finishing in 1999 country was conquered that true in 1999 and is now part of Russian Federation but oposing forces fight Kadyrov until 2009. Then was silent and since 2014 Checheen emigree fights on Ukrainian side and are also now involved in Kyiv defence.

Here is also famous "Parteitag" :D in Grozny 25 February https://twitter.com/cbatuhan36/statu...oORa0awc-zr3og
And tweets feed about Chechen in Ukraine from both sides https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chechen?src=hashtag_click

Chechen forces are small on both sides but are elite forces and in my opnion they play important role for both sides. They are with longest experience on battlefield since 1993.

And don't forgoten also about Belorusia. Lukaszenko today send his army to fight Ukraine and help Russia. He said that no Belorusian soliders are involved in that confilict but in 1 of March 2022 they were spoted in Czernichov oblast western Ukraine. So propably he lied (don't know english political correct word for ugly lie). But for Belorusian that start to be also a civil war there existing unit of Belorusian exiles which fight on Ukrainian side since begining of the war so here info about them
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...JxhxVZhPSkSWUA
https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/swiat,109...e,1097753.html

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

The Russian troops that went into Belarus were largely drawn from the Far East IIRC - which have been not had priority for new kit and have had to make do with older stuff. Think I saw T-72As the other day...

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Makes sense if you want to ensure your troops don't have relatives in Ukraine.......

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

From NBC news

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

News over here claims Canada will ship 100 Carl Gustaf RRs (Grg, or Granatgevär). If true Ukraine will field examples of all modern Swedish made inf-AT systems that exist in the game except the RBS-56 ATGM ...

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Yes, I know and I have added them and MAYBE they might actually make it to Ukraine but I'm not optimistic. 100 Launchers and IIRC 2000 rockets

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

It has been reported as of late last night that the 350 million dollar weapons package we just sent has been already delivered d to the Ukraine. Some are "guessing" it was landed in Slovakia or Czech Republic and transported overland across the border in Ukraine. Most if not all from Europe has been going through Poland.

Supposedly, we used the other option to more rapidly expedite get those weapons in country due to Europe using Poland for the same and refugees (Now about 600K.) coming out of the Ukraine.

About to timeout. Gotta Go!

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Update about Kadyrov units according to this article their vehicles are marked with V instead of Z like rest of regular units

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...orodianka.html

There is also list of foreign aid equipment send to Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...-Ukrainian_War

Starlink also comes to Ukraine important to keep comunications
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-mu...ernet-service/
https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/...92515262746630

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

And in Sumy region fights stops. Brave Russian commander give his soldiers command to stop fight and move their vehicles back to Russia even if he know as said during negotiations he will face curt marital and probably death.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...ls-raised.html

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

If True it's significant but there is a whiff of propaganda/maskirovka about it as it's only being reported there..........time will tell

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

This whole thing has had that from the start. I don't trust or support either side.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

This is not a Black/white issue and it didn't just suddenly happen

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I feel stupid, I knew of the troops, but for some reason I never made the connection of having as few "connections" with Ukraine as possible. Thanks.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Interesting video from the Russian side.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=7742784695735466

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

2000 M72 LAW from Norway to Ukraine.
https://www.ptisidiastima.com/norway...aw-to-ukraine/

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I'm not saying anything most of you don't already know ( or should )

I think it is safe to say that in NATO countries NATO is seen strictly as a Defensive alliance designed solely to deter aggression against any one member. Any potential aggressor would know that the doctrine of mutual defence is (theoretically...) "carved in stone" and any attack on one is an attack on them all and ASSUMING those "leading" those NATO nations don't suddenly develop feet of clay an attack on a NATO member nation is not something to go into lightly.

OTOH NATO is not viewed the same in Russia. Warsaw pact was an ( obviously ) Russian "friendly" alliance and buffer between Russia and NATO

That buffer no longer exists and NATO has brought into the alliance former WP/ Soviet Union states that now directly border Russia and there had been rumours about bringing in Ukraine as well though I don't know how serious that was. It is a certainty that the previous Ukrainian President would never have entertained the idea but Zelenskyy looks west, not east and that complicates things

"Good fences make for good neighbours"..... if one neighbour moves the fence into what you consider your property that creates a problem

..........and now we have a problem. If Ukraine falls, then Russia will have a greatly expanded land border with the European Union which, of course, is the reverse of an EU /NATO Ukraine which the EU/ NATO will no doubt view as a serious threat that is little different from the one an EU /NATO Ukraine did the Russians.



"May you live in interesting times"

...it seems we are

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Finally found descriptions table on Russian vehicles

https://i.redd.it/fx9l82j45rk81.jpg

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Revised my original scenario.

Changes:

1.) Victory locations now on map. :doh:

2.) Ukrainian ATGM teams standardized around 35 Experience, 65 morale -- remember that this is Day 1 of the war -- they haven't had experience in firing lots of ATGMs...yet (rare, and expensive for Ukraine before war.).

3.) Pre-programmed timed Russian barrages collapsed to a single pre-game preparatory bombardment, after which the complete artillery setup is available for Russian player.

4.) Tinkered a bit with Ukrainian reinforcement timing.

5.) revised scenario name and text below:

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

The seeming Russian incompetence in this war may be due to a simple factor:

Corruption + Conscripts.

Almost all of the Russian logistics forces are conscripts, due to the proscription of using conscripts in "active" front line positions due to "Soldier's Mothers'" Groups.

This means that the logistics guys for the last four months have been selling stuff in the assumption it was an exercise.

(before the invasion, there were stories of Russian troops selling diesel fuel, etc to local villagers)

According to Russian plans captured by the Ukrainians, many Russian staff officers found out about this being an invasion on February 18th, with the target date being February 22nd.

That's not a lot of time to fix fuel (and spare parts) stocks depleted over 4 months of buildup by ill paid conscripts doing conscript things.

Additionally, many of their wheeled vehicles may be suffering from tire rot:

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...64245250002944

https://twitter.com/KarlMuth/status/1499185800172474371

To make things worse, we have rations on Russian vehicles that expired in ... 2015.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...21431079735297

This is my theory.

A significant fraction of the vehicles used in the invasion were pulled from supply depots, similar to US REFORGER exercises.

When those vehicles were placed into the depots sometime around 2010-2011; they were stocked with a full equipment/MTOE loadout, which included food rations.

At some point, those rations expired; which isn't a bad thing -- they do that; and a rational supply depot clerk would make it part of the "checklist" to check the rations every year.

Either that, or when the vehicles were pulled out for the "exercise", the expired rations should have been replaced with fresh ones.

This...didn't happen.

Another issue is flat out corruption.

I've seen it claimed that out of $1T spent on military modernization in Russia, about $120-200M actually made it to their intended targets.

That's an outlandish claim, but not so much afterr reports of Russian troops using unencrypted commercial radios in the Ukraine.

The best explanations for why the Russians would be insane enough to use unencrypted commercial Baofeng radios in a major military operation are two:

1.) The money for the good tactical comms was diverted away over the years at various command elements.

2.) A lot of the troops being used are from the Far Eastern Republics (aka Mongolians), with obsolete equipment such as T-72As and T-72Bs.

All theories end up at the same place:

When the higher ups were told that yes, this "Exercise" on the Ukrainian border is actually an invasion, they had to hurriedly order commercial radios to bring all their units up to (or close to) full TO&E levels, since there was no time (and insufficient warstocks) to equip everyone with the latest encrypted radios that are standard issue for top line units.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Or the Russians are using this to test out tactics and junior officers, along with cleaning out older equipment.

The Russians like to play games, they know no one really takes them seriously, and they know that given their performance in other conflicts since the 90s, NO ONE TAKES THEM SERIOUSLY. So all we keep seeing are these glowing reports of the Ukrainians doing well, but all we see on the flip side is reports of idiotic Russian moves or their tanks being stolen or this or that. Never do we see anything that shows them in another light or viewpoint.

So I don't buy the propaganda coming out of the area from either side. Recall no army does everything right all the time, and given how easy it is to sit on the sidelines and judge we are all seeing things from a point of view of not being there.

I prefer facts, so far very little of that has come out of the region, and given that the American media and political parties are playing their own spin and games with things, I doubt we will ever get the facts.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I can only imagine the laughter in the Kremlin when they watched Condoleezza Rice condemn Russia for invading a sovereign nation.

The irony is pretty thick

As for spin, I have watched one MSNBC "commentator" blame Trump for everything going on when it was Trump that put Sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in 2019 and it was Biden who removed them in May 2021.



"The first casualty of war is truth"

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukr...rces-1.6372259

Escalating fodder for the propaganda industry on both sides

"Brave Foreign Volunteers!!" <<>>" Murderous Foreign contract killers!!"

Potato-Potatoe

I will give the guy credit for putting it all on the line. First against ISIS and now in Ukraine

Don

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Didn't Biden back the 2014 coup in Ukraine?

Yes, truth is always lost in a war.

Try explaining to folks how infrastructure like powerplants and such are legitimate targets and you will get branded all kinds of names. I was recently kicked out of a history group for citing the Laws of Land Warfare on how structures lose any special protection IF one side or the other uses them as part of a defense or to house military equipment.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Hows this for going from the sublime to the rediculous

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ed-on-tax-form

Ukraine authorities say seized Russian tanks don’t need to be declared on tax form
Corruption-fighting body urges citizens to ‘continue to defend the motherland’ while easing any concerns about ‘significant changes in the property status’ :doh:

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Piorun is confirmed - here is YT tutorial (Ukrainian only, though) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oW5TISE8_w0 ;)
A point of interest is attached ID key corresponding to missile's number, and a keyboard with modes:
(upper row) aircraft/helicopter, UAV, rocket,
(middle row) clear weather, clouds, night.

And here is a result of probably Piorun's action: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1354173825098926

With tanks I think it's a joke, and authorities appeal to report tanks in order to recover and rehaul them. There are already photos of GAZ Tigr in some repair plant. But I guess Kamaz truck might be more luring ;)

BTW, I recalled a dialogue: The Russians stopped with a fuel truck by our shop to rob food. While they were inside, we stole their truck ;)

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Seems that Germany sent a bunch of duds to Ukraine, many of the MPADs are not working, thing is they sent old Igla MPADs, 700 of which have failed to fire. Along with moldy ammo for AKs and other WP weapons. I guess they didn't sell off all that old East German stock of weapons and ammo. But hey it's the thought that counts...

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Germany gave 500 Stingers and 1000 PzF 3, and German government claims, that they arrived to Ukraine on Wednesday (2 March). I guess there are no complaints concerning them.

Just about that time it was announced, that Germany would give also 2700 ex-DDR Strelas (I assume Strela-2M?), but German press revealed, that according to Bundeswehr reports, only around 2000 are still useful. Sadly, Germany is unjustly criticized for this decision in some scandal-seeking media, which do not mention Stingers... :mad: Anyway, I think, that it's better to have extra 2000 Strelas at hand, than nothing (even with its mediocre hit probability, and limited rather to running out aircraft, showing exhaust).

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Well, for last 10 days I almost do nothing but check battlefield news and read analyses, especially, that it is neighbour country...

In short, most analytics here agree, that it was not the war, that the Russians expected. Possibly trying to make it relatively "peaceful", and counting on little opposition, there were only weak missile and airforce preparation strikes. Southern direction actions were well prepared and trained, but surprisingly, on Kiev direction there were thrown two armies from Far East and Middle Asia, with worse training, older equipment and high conscript ratio. Elite 1st Tank Army was supposed to take Kharkiv, but met with strong and well prepared opposition there. Very important factor is, that most Russian conscript troops evidently had no "heart" for real war, especially that they were told, that it was basically a peacekeeping operation with people's support against the corrupt government, whose army would probably decompose. None of it appeared even close. And the people were former "brothers", speaking similar or the same language. Russian army did not evolve far from Warsaw Pact tactics, especially with little combined operation capability, while Ukrainian one was professionally trained according to NATO standards. And of course, if Russian leading columns were able to move into the country, there started problems with logistics - which was never strong and well-organized in USSR/Russia (supply convoys, protection and recovery of broken down equipment). Huge books will be written someday on this war... (provided, that it would not lead to mankind destruction).

Of course, Ukrainian side, trying to gain support and raise morale, publishes films of capturing or burning enemy equipment. They are mostly taken by National Guard territorial army, which makes ambushes in vast country. On the other hand, it is overlooked, that main burden of halting Russian advance is carried by regular Ukrainian army, with tanks and BMPs - there were reportedly fierce tank battles around Kharhkiv, Chernihiv and north of Kiev, but no reports are revealed to public. And regular soldiers are forbidden to carry mobile phones. Surely Ukrainian ground forces lost a couple thousand soldiers as well. Irregardless if there were any US interests or not, one thing is sure: noone in the 21st century is entitled to invade a neighbour in order to overthrow democratic government which does not violate human rights, or to dictate if sovereign country can be a member of some alliance, and this "special military operation" may not be justified.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

War is going to happen and no rules or "you can't do this or that because it's the 21st Century" is going to change that. Pretty sure the same comments were made all the way back to when there was peace between most countries and then well a history book will tell you how that turned out.

War is never going to go away. Not unless humanity is removed from the picture.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I hope you not consider it spam, here's a video of Russian D-30 howizter battery near Nikolaiyv, probably attacked with cluster munition, if you haven't seen it... Impressive counter-battery work
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk98HKJuoCI

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Do you know if that was a Ukrainian speaking or Russian? I must confess I cannot tell the difference

I assume this was recorded well after the event as the scene is devoid of any evidence of casualties

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Ukrainian, though the difference is subtle. The narrator speaks, that "it was what remained of our brothers, who came to save us" (Ukrainian: "spasaty" instead of Russian "spasti"). "In such way Ukrainian artillery hits", he says.

Reportedly there are films on twitter (or wherever) with casaulties...

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

potentially dumb question alert

Maybe you know, maybe someone else does

Is Ukrainian to Russian ( the languages..... ) similar to the similarities and differences between High German and German Dialects?

( English, as spoken in the south of England and the Scottish northern highlands also comes to mind )

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

another one

https://twitter.com/i/status/1500513612661760000

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

There are no dumb questions ;)

I don't know the difference between German dialects, but I believe that Ukrainian and Russian are more different. Knowing Russian, I don't know Ukrainian and can hardly understand it, though more words are similar to Polish. A lot of words are different and there are slightly different grammar forms. Some Cyrillic letters are pronounced in a different way, which is a false friend. In writing, the easiest way to tell Ukrainian are letters "і" and "ї".

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I finally remembered my password, yippee. While trawling around the hellscape that is twitter I came across this map by an account called 'Jomini'. I have absolutely no clue how accurate it is, but I do hope that the divisional organization can help folks make more accurate maps.

With that in mind, any idea what the 20th Guards Motor are rocking? They were recently reformed apparently, so I assume they're rolling with some decent kit. Thinking about doing a scenario down there about the (theoretical) breakout from Kherson.

Apologies that this is a link. Been trying for the past few minutes to get it to work, but I'm far too tired and inebriated to keep it up. I promise it works if you click on it, though!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNOCaZeX....jpg?name=orig

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Germans were saving that East German equipment for a "rainy day" which is what probably happened inside those ammo bunkers!?! That's my theory anyway. :rolleyes:

KMW however, has offered from their own stockpile to send I BELIEVE the number was 50 GEPHARD SPAA to the Ukraine. They were (Almost 2 weeks ago now.) prepping them for shipment to include some minor updates to Radar and FCS.

1. Pending Govt. approval which is likely now.

2. How to setup training on the systems for the Ukrainian troops are the issues of concern at this time.

Ashamed about the STRELA's if true, they at least might've been effective to a degree against the Russia helicopters.

I feel good about my assessment of I made about the fighting qualities of the Ukrainian military prior to the invasion, they took what everyone gave them training wise to include an extensive portion devoted to "nationalism" and "pride of service" to their country.

I'm under no illusions here (Though I really hope I'm wrong and they pull off the 1936 Winter War Finland won.) but the situation is very dyer I think in the long term. That being said, I at the same time feel Putin waited 8yrs too long. He should've kept going in 2014. And before someone says something, I'm glad he didn't.

Also have seen several reports earlier on that the Russians are running around with a fair amount T-72B3 tanks and I've seen a couple of videos where the turrets had been blown off of them (~3 or 4. Usually, a sign they were taken out by top attack ATGM, ours or UK's. How? By the ERA Pkg. on them for one.

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Read about this tank T-64BV Obr.2022 tank. was tested by Ukrainians in 8th of February even if existing in one example they don't have time to modernised more I'm certain was rushed to the front unit https://thedeaddistrict.blogspot.com...-tank-has.html
the same with T-64BVK commander tank upgrade https://thedeaddistrict.blogspot.com...d-t-64bvk.html

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

"The Outskirts of Mykolaiev"

A Steel Panthers MBT Scenario (Slot #551 in the "Scenarios" list)

Location : Small town of Mykolaiev'ske just SE of Mykolaiev, Ukraine (small map), March 2022.

Battle Type : Russia (east) Advance vs. Ukraine (west) Delay.

Setting : Forward elements of Russian South Front battle forces, trying to cut off Ukraine's Black Sea coast from the rest of the country, try to take this small town, which is right on the way to the larger city of Mykolaiev (formerly Russian Nikolaev).

As most of Ukraine's conventional army has had to be retained to defend the Kyiv / Kharkiv front up north, local Ukrainian infantry forces -- supplemented by a rag-tag force of Ukrainian "Territorial Guard" and "Foreign Legion" units -- attempts to hold off the advancing Russians as long as possible.

For more of a challenge, I suggest that you play the Ukrainian side, although the scenario has been play-tested and is winnable as either side, with the caveat that a "Draw" based on points score should be counted as a "Marginal Victory" for the Ukrainians. Make sure to read the scenario notes, they are extensive!

And let's all hope for a speedy and just end to this conflict. Far too many innocent people have died in it, already. War ain't a game, unfortunately.

Sincerely

Mr. Bill

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I will be interested in any feedback on how this plays

A new addition to both games this year is something I have long wanted and that is to have accurate information about actually total "troop strength" This report appears when you purchase units for a scenario, campaign or generated battle

While the unit cost for the Russian forces vs Ukrainian is 8922/3415

The resulting troop strength for both sides is identical which is quite a feat to have done that without planning to

https://forum.shrapnelgames.com/atta...1&d=1646740226


EDIT. I have copied this post and the one with the scenario to the SCENARIOS subfolder

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Yeah that does make sense. I recall from back in the 80's buying surplus 8mm ammo that had been OBVIOUSLY sand blasted to remove storage corrosion. Interestingly, I do not recall many misfires from it


https://militaryleak.com/2022/03/02/...ag-to-ukraine/

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

Posted just as an FYI since this thread has "evolved". Who knew the pandemic could be viewed as the "good times"



https://tass.com/politics/1418197?ut...rer=google.com

I guess that means all that oil and gas can be paid for in rubles as well

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

What seemed odd about that report from the start was they ( theoretically ) would not have had them all that long but reported 700 didn't work...... that's a lot of missiles flying around. I realize there are a lot of targets but still, it seems odd in that short of time it would be known that out of 2700 reported that they PLANNED to send on March 3 that it would be known in so short a time that 700 failed to fire

It doesn't add up

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

I see that base Ukraine stats will get a massive rework next update. I've checked right now and in 2022 they are 52/63 XP/morale. They definitely were too harsh on Ukrainians, although I'm not sure if 68/70 is closer to the truth. I'd tweak them more towards 66/68.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

How is everyone adjusting for the dismal performance of Russian armor in UA? I've lowered quite a bit of numbers, but I can't quite get the APS to give me any flexibility. Breakdowns I can't seem to influence either.

Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
 

What everyone is seeing is what the Ukrainians and their supporters want you to see and I am NOT saying it's wrong but it is the reality.

Nobody who is not there can possibly be is seeing the whole picture from the POV of both sides and I doubt that few who are there are seeing the whole picture either.

We see lots of wrecked Russian equipment but the Russians keep making gains ( or so it seems albeit slowly. It's almost if they want to make as big a mess as possible )

Any modern MBT taken from the side with an ATGM or even one of the better AT weapons is going to end up a flaming wreck and you can test that theory in the game yourself

Yes we upped the EXP/MOR of the Ukrainians as it was originally based on 2014 performance but we are NOT going to endlessly change it so WYSIWYG and if you don't like it that's why there is a troops quality button in the preferences screen and you can dial it up or down however you think is right

There was an interesting comment about that in a MSM article

EDIT. What I heard on the news tonight ( FWIW ) is that it's been estimated ( but I don't know by who ) and Russia has lost 10% of the forces that went in... but so has Ukraine ( and the bigger battalions win )

Also just read Russia lost a Major General recently