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Originally Posted by DRG
Agreed but they are already hip-deep in this publically sending arms to Ukraine. The whole thing is a mess but totally flips what must have been seen to the Russians as unacceptable that Ukraine might join the EU which would be the stepping stone to NATO and now potentially puts Russia's armed forces on the border with the EU.
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Latvia and Estonia already border Russia directly. Poland and Lithuania border it sort of indirectly with Kaliningrad (separated from Russia like Alaska and Hawaii are from US and Cabinda from Angola). Main differences are eastern Ukraine used to be part of Russian Empire as well as Soviet Union and Kievan Rus is claimed by Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as their cultural ancestor.
My guess is Russia will gobble eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River while installing a Russian puppet in Kiev and western Ukraine. NATO will not intervene; now Ukrainian President calls the West "weak and insecure." Which IMHO describes Zelensky himself. He deliberately provoked Russia by publicly expressing a desire to join NATO, thinking it would bail him out. All Ukraine suffers for his ill-advised gamble.