Re: What if...
The EU is in a very weak position these days: The Euro zone is a total disaster and immigration policy (re economic migrants, rather than genuine refugees) a total mess up. Border policy a total mess. UK certainly should leave it, many other nations -including even France- now see its huge draw backs.
So sure EU might well break up (and not before time if you ask me).
The 'new cold war' is merely traditional Russian policy coming back again. I am not at all sure it is vital to western Europe to defend the Baltic States, even if -a very big if indeed- it is possible.
Meantime, aside from warfare resulting from who has the best invisible friend in the sky (sigh, in the 21st Century) China remains the real threat to the West, very heavily involved in Africa, rich, autocratic, expansionist, and building up her Navy with Aircraft Carriers, etc.
If European nations can defend their borders against a vast mass of mostly purely economic migrants, China, for my money remains the longer term and more serious threat...
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