Quote:
Originally Posted by Wdll
I have to say I am disappointed. Glad, but disappointed the Russians suck so much in this war. Ukraine still has remnants of its already tiny airforce, artillery too and air defense. The Russians have supply issues and I am very very weirded out about some of their tactics.
I am glad they are not doing better and I hope so much that they fail completely.
Still, it looks like they have become kind of a joke. I mean, if not for their nuclear weapons I don't think they could successfully invade even a small to medium size country which has normal size armed forces.
As for tougher opponents...yeah.
Let's hope this ends soon and Putler one way or another gets out of the picture.
|
I have to say I strongly disagree with you Wdll. I don’t see anything that tells me that Russian offensive is stalled and that they’re about to lose. They are well on schedule and their setbacks are not catastrophic.
I think we are spoiled by US invasions with minimal losses that we lose the big picture. One, Ukraine is not Iraq and the force disparity is not as great as it was with USA vs. Iraq. Two, US operational tempo is slower than the Russian one. American way of war is to bomb and shell enemy forces for days, or even weeks before any ground operation begins. Russian ground operations began at day 1. Also, no US commander would think that an assault like the one in Hostomel airfield is a good idea. Reason for that is that it is too risky for the airborne troops participating. Russians do these stuff because they see the big picture: the operational level. If you accomplish objectives fast, then that more than justifies any tactical setbacks you’ve suffered along the way.
In addition to that, there’s nothing to suggest that they do not follow their own doctrine, which is more or less known to the west by now. CRPs/Forward detachments probe forward. If they find resistance, they try to find another route. Advance is swift and dangerous for supply trucks (hence the problems with logistics). The goal is to not get bogged down in urban fighting but keep moving in the Ukrainian interior lines, either isolating strongpoints or forcing the Ukrainians to use their reserves. When the latter are committed/ identified, then the Russian follow-up forces will get into the fray. So far we’ve seen T72B3s, BMP2s, MTLB and so on. These are fairly old equipment which begs the question where are the good stuff? Where are the T90s, BMP3s and so on? Well, these are waiting in Operational Maneuver Groups, waiting for the moment to finish the Ukrainians off.
Ukrainians have won the PR war, especially in the Western media, but this can lead us to have wrong assumptions about the reality on the ground. Posting a video of 3 Russian wrecks of the CRP is good for morale, but that’s about it. Not to mention the huge amount of fake stuff that is being posted everywhere.
I’m sorry if I sound pessimistic, I really hope the Ukrainians pull this off. But that does not change the fact that they are in a really tough spot. Could they win this? I mean, maybe. There are no sure things in war. Just as the Iraqis could beat the Americans theoretically. But in both cases, the odds were not in them.