Russia: Dismiss at your own risk

[Anthony_Scott]

Excellent read from the USNI blog, a warning that the Germans with hindsight would tend to agree.

http://blog.usni.org/2011/01/18/russ...your-own-risk/

[Wdll]

Hmm,
I agree with some parts, but not with other. Russia did not lose whole fleets of aircraft, no reason to pretend like they did. Georgia was not an helpless country, even for just air defense. It's not shocking that Russia lost as much (or as little) as they did.
Russia did not use huge numbers to defeat Georgia. From what I remember the numbers were comparable, but not smaller than the Georgian army. What Russia did have though was a plan and a huge morale advantage. Georgian troops left hundreds of military vehicles, from tanks to mobile SAM and artillery and ran away. Apart from pockets of resistance in the north west, the Georgian army simply collapsed more because of what Russia could do to them than what they did.

The two major problems of Russia were 1)lack of air recon (mentioned in the article) and 2)complete lack of proper cooperation between air (planes) and ground forces. The airforce didn't have or couldn't complete a plan. Thankfully for the Russians (and the world probably) Georgians decided to retreat in most cases.

I almost laughed when the author said that in a proper attack of Russia by USA (conventional forces), Russia didn't stand a chance. That's the objective unbiased spirit talking? I will just mention one thing out of many, Russia is not Iraq to allow an army to deploy for months near their border without acting on it.
One last thing, the author of the article seems to be absolutely certain that the death of Russia due to demographics is certain and it is just a matter of time (a couple of generations?). He should really stop falling into the same trap that others have with their anti Russian sentiments.

They are not serving anyone in the USA any good by choosing to underestimate a potential opponent.

As to what happened to Georgia, I am not against them wanting to get their territory back, but to start a war thinking that the enemy will not fight because someone else could fight on your behalf, is...stupid.

Too much cockiness.

[dmnt]

Originally Posted by Wdll

Hmm,
As to what happened to Georgia, I am not against them wanting to get their territory back, but to start a war thinking that the enemy will not fight because someone else could fight on your behalf, is...stupid.

The South Ossetian issue is a bit larger and goes far in the history. Basically they've been a pawn in a big players' chess match for centuries. I read about a year ago a book on Russian history and culture where this Ossetian issue was also considered - mind you that it was written before this most recent conflict! World politics is a complicated issue and the move from Russia can be seen as an answer to the Kosovo issue where western countries supported the independence of Kosovo and Russia opposing it. (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_status_process) Russia saw the opportunity to also liberate and grant independence to a neighbouring autonomous state. Especially as the Georgia was forming strong relations to the West, possibly seeking NATO membership. For Russia this is comparable to what US would think should Mexico form a military union with China.

To conclude my point, the Ossetians have been run over again and again. I hope we won't see more wars on that side of the globe and that we'll be all happy just running the simulations in SPMBT.

[Wdll]

Thanks, I am a strategist, I am aware of the history behind it. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. The reason why Georgia attacked, is irrelevant. The reason why Russia attacked is also irrelevant (to the original post). Georgia wanted to gain something but only with the idea it was playing it safe with USA covering their ***. They failed. If you are aggressive with the idea that someone else will do the serious fighting for you if things get bad (or that they won't because of it), you are doomed to fail.

Of course, there is another theory, that Georgia was played by both USA and Russia, but it is going to be really hard for anyone to prove that lol.

[RecruitMonty]

I read this particular article a while back. It was interesting reading. I think it is generally wise not to underestimate the Russians . Demographics seem to be a problem the World over (one way or another).