Interesting Cold War era threat assessment - Soviet point of view

[Exiled Penguin]

Hello,

This popped up on TankNet thanks to one of the inquisitive guys there... An Intelligence special report on Soviet evaluation of combat potential of equipment and units - now public thanks to FOIA.
Very interesting read, even though some bits clearly show they year (like high rating for the M60A2). Still, it is an interesting comparison of armored vehicles, weapons systems (interesting how high rating they had for example for HAWK SAM or Gepard SPAA) and entire formations.

LINK

It certainly can bring some inspiration for scenario/unit setup. Now I shall try to get something on 1991 variant, as there could be more interesting comparisons like T-55AM2 vs. T-72 and so on

Cheers

[Suhiir]

Interesting read.

The ones that caught my eye was their ratings for the for the PT-76 and T-64 ... bit optimistic I think.

[Exiled Penguin]

Well, putting PT-76 on the same level as T-34/85 kinda fits T-64B is pretty logical, it was pretty advanced tank, though overall it seems that missiles have played a big role (see M60A2). would be interesting to see changes after the full extent of TI sights benefits was visible (and limitations of gun-launched missiles).

[shahadi]

Yes, the report is interesting. However, I am not sure how to read it. Since the armaments are not listed alphabetically or in some other order, it appears that the ratings are per line comparisons between the Soviet armaments v probable enemy. Thus, an armament rating is not absolute but more likely relative to the armament of the probable enemy listed on the same line. Or, it could mean the rating is relative to all like armaments within the same category.

Thus, the PT-76 is compared to the AMX 13/75mm gun with the SS11B-1 as 0.48 to 0.80 respectively. Or, the PT-76 rating of 0.80 is compared to all vehicles in same category of "TANKS AND SELF-PROPELLED ARTILLERY, INFANTRY COMBAT VEHICLES, ARMORED PERSONNEL CARRIERS."

Further, I am not sure of the usefulness of the comparisons of combat potential as the document states, "referenced
above that the comparisons contained in these documents were calculated on the basis of mathematical methods based on the use of a computer. Source was unable to ascertain what factors went into the mathematical equations."

We really do not know what combat potential measures.

IMHO

Later, I followed the URL to the Freedom of Information Act portal on the CIA web site under the historical collections and found a number of collections of varied appeal, namely: The Bay of Pigs Release, CIA Analysis of WARSAW Pact Forces, and the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.

Thank you Exiled Penguin.

[Exiled Penguin]

The ratings (at least for AFVs) are based on assigning a T-55 value of "1.0". thus you can see (at least the ground combat systems) as being compared in their effectiveness to T-55.

The exact method is not that important TBH and can be easily taken as a "black box" - the end result is what counts (and what counted in the heads of appropriate planners).

[Suhiir]

Yeah the values for ATGMs were notable and not too surprising as the Soviets hung them on everything possible much the same way the USA does 50cals.

I too would be interested in an assessment once TI becomes available, be very interesting to see how much of a factor they assessed it to be.

And Penguin is correct, the method is fairly irrelevant what matters is the relative value the planners gave the items.