What happens in 2025? / new tactics- new technologies

[MarkSheppard]

Apparently the Ukrainians have formed specialized FPV/Drone units to function as "cleanup" units.

One unit on the Avdiivka front is called "SHADOW" and what they do is they wait until a Russian assault has been shattered; then start flying drones equipped with incendiary devices around, looking for abandoned/knocked out Russian vehicles and then dropping said incendiaries down open hatches, etc.

Once a good fire is burning, move on to the next target; as the protective quality of the armour is destroyed by sustained fires.

[DRG]

It also eliminates the possibility of a merely damaged vehicle being recovered and repaired by both sides

[MarkSheppard]

New wrinkle in the ongoing hyper-acceleration of drone/EW warfare.

The Russians have started to put jammers onto unmanned ground vehicles and drive them onto Ukrainian positions during the night to knock out comms/whatnot before an attack.

Telegram Link Below:
https://t.me/yigal_levin/65668

[DRG]

That is a small thing to detect at night

[whdonnelly]

We walked around Kabul with personal jammers on our gear. Glad that it never had a real test.

[MarkSheppard]

From another forum -- a summary of this youtube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/@valgear5525

He's an active duty Ukrainian soldier who posts reviews of both NATO and Soviet equipment (rifles, grenades, flares, tourniquets, etc.). Recently, he posted an exclusive video to his Patreon that goes in-depth regarding drones. I'm not a paying member, but someone else on another forum did the leg work and summarized the key points. This is going to be a really long post, but it's very interesting.

FPV drone types (warheads):

. Explosive/Fragmentation - Straightforward, plastic explosive filler with fragmentation sleeve. Used for exposed personnel.

. HEAT - Most commonly RPG-7 Warheads

. Penetration Core - Here I think he was referring to an explosively formed penetrator (EFP). Opposed to HEAT, an EFP have a much thicker hemispherical copper lining with HE behind it. The benefit of an EFP is that the penetrator forms much further away (up to 20m) from the detonation, allowing penetration from a distance and through cope cages. Valgear states that these "Penetration Core" warheads are slowly replacing HEAT on the battlefield.

. Thermobaric - Mini fuel/air bombs which are used against dugouts and other entrenched positions

. Proximity Fuse - Valgear states that UA is slowly trying to replace contact fuses with proximity fuses with Claymore warheads, which detonate via a command from the drone operator. Valgear didn't say why, but I believe this is due to the rise of penetration core drones as well as better fragmentation zone.

FPV Drone Defensive Tactics - Interesting note, Valgear states that UA is basing its infantry drone defense tactics at least in part off of RU's reports and experience.

. First line of defense - Always listen for FPV drone motors. Always have a team member looking up and with active ear protection on max.

. Second line of defense - Speed. Of course, it's harder to hit a moving target.

. Third Line of defense - Smoke. Smoke is very effective at obscuring your position. If you are moving and obscured, you are much harder to hit. Russians are using massive smoke screens, kilometers wide to obscure movement of men and vehicles. It does clearly signal an attack, but with spotting drones so prevalent, it's better to obscure the attack than to attempt surprise.

. Forth line of defense - SHOOT! As soon as you see the drone, shoot at it. This was originally a Russian doctrine, but UAF is starting to adopt it as well. Reports are stating that this tactic is actually very effective. This is a pretty interesting example of selection bias in the footage we see. Russians and Ukrainians aren't posting videos of drones getting shot down, but it seems (at least based on this guy's reporting) this is actually a viable defense. Shooting at it may shoot down a drone, but it also forces the operator into evasive action and can result in poor targeting. This is also why proximity fuses are becoming more popular, because the operator can instantly detonate over the personnel as opposed to maneuvering for a good hit.

. When in a forest, hug a tree. When in a building, close all doors and windows, use curtains if glass is shattered (curtains can detonate fuse).

In general, if you get spotted, be active and aggressive with your defense. Cowering in place will only result in certain death.

EW (Electronic Warfare)

. Any EW is better than none. Even if operating on the wrong frequencies, EW can interfere with an operator at short ranges. Note: Another Ukrainian soldier on the forum I'm copying and pasting this from disagreed, stating, "Completely wrong. If you do not match the operating range of the signal, the effectiveness of your EW emitter is zero (0). Short range interference is due to radio blocking of the signal when losing line of sight."

. UA has some EW capabilities (vehicle mounts and backpack EW).

. Russians have gotten much better at EW in quantity and quality. They now have EW repeaters that create a frequency umbrella around their trenches.

. "Radio Horizon" - This is essentially the range of EW and FPV frequencies in consideration of Earth curvature and obstacles. Place antennas high on trees and buildings. The UAF is now placing repeaters on heavy drones.

Drone Drop Munitions

. Usually use DJI Mavic series drones.

. Up to Baba Yaga - Heavy drone that drops mines, apparently it’s a repurposed agricultural drone.

. Valgear states that drone drops are an even greater threat than FPV. They have better resolution, and can acquire targets better. They have higher munition capacity. Due to the altitudes they are operating in, they are very difficult to hear and see.

. RU is using drone drop attacks at a similar frequency to UA.

. Autell Drones are more dangerous than DJI, because they are more resistant to EW than DJI and can operate at night.

Drone Drop Defensive Tactics

. Basically the same as FPV with a few differences. When digging a trench and dugout, dig the trench deeper than the dugout. This way a drone drop grenade will not roll into the dugout.

Drone Surveillance

. American doctrine states that when you encounter indirect fire, you should push in the direction of that fire (note: this isn't the case, according to people on the original forum). In the context of Ukraine, and drone surveillance, this is a completely outdated tactic. On the modern battlefield, artillery zeros in within minutes.

. If you encounter indirect fire, take cover immediately.

. You will get one to three accurate shots on your position, but if your cover is good, chances are you will survive.

. After you have taken fire, wait in cover for 30min to an hour (longer the better) for the spotting drone to run out of battery and return to base.

. "Don’t **** around with artillery under any condition, ever!"

. Artillery is the number one killer in Ukraine.

. Russians will double tap you if you do not wait long enough.

Fixed Wing Drones

. Orlan - 10- Surveillance drone and designator. Typically designates for guided cluster munitions, less often Lancets.

. Zala - Another surveillance drone and designator. Typically designates for Lancets (Zala and Lancet are built by the same company).

. Lancets (First Generation) - Used a general penetration warhead, similar to an upscaled DPCIM submunition.

. Lancets (Second Generation) - Uses a penetration core (EFP) to penetrate past netting and cover.

. These fixed wing drones are used almost entirely to identify and eliminate high value targets: artillery, tanks, etc. Infantry generally doesn't have to worry about them.