odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )

Agrajag · #1 July 30th, 2004, 08:18 PM

As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

Stormbinder · #2 July 30th, 2004, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Agrajag:
As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

That's not what KristofferO said Agrajag, in the link that Graeme have posted.

Agrajag · #3 July 30th, 2004, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Stormbinder:

quote:
Originally posted by Agrajag:
As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

That's not what KristofferO said Agrajag, in the link that Graeme have posted.

So according to him, the chance of an event occouring are only modifed by the capitol, the chance of it being a good or bad even is influenced by the local luck scale of the province.
So if someone has a high order dominion, bad luck won't be too bad, but if he has turmoil+3 and luck+3 he is totaly screwed in any province of his that hasnt dominioned up to luck+3 (especially if that province has been dominioned/spelled to misfortune+3).

Sheap · #4 July 30th, 2004, 08:40 PM

I don't read the posting in Graeme's link the same as everyone else I guess. This is the original posting that convinced me only home province matters at all.

Quote:

Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects.

(It's on page 5)

This seems very clear and straightforward to me. Did he make a mistake in this statement? The only thing province scales would seem to do is restrict whether nor not the extreme events (i.e. barbarian hordes, caspar of the cave) are allowed there or not. Since most events both good and bad are allowed with any scales, this wouldn't have a huge effect.

Boron · #5 July 30th, 2004, 08:46 PM

new question :
a norna e.g. prevents bad events with 15% probability .
do they simply stack so 7 nornas are enough to prevent every bad event or 15% cancel chance for each norna , but no stackup ?
then for 7 nornals the chance to prevent a bad event should be ~68% .
while ulms fortune tellers have only 5% .
so even 15 fortune tellers in capitol would only prevent ~54% of bad events .

Stormbinder · #6 July 30th, 2004, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Agrajag:
So according to him, the chance of an event occouring are only modifed by the capitol, the chance of it being a good or bad even is influenced by the local luck scale of the province.

No, actually it is other way around. KristofferO said that random event being good or bad is determined by the luck scale in the capital, *than* restricted by the local scales.

Quote:

So if someone has a high order dominion, bad luck won't be too bad, but if he has turmoil+3 and luck+3 he is totaly screwed in any province of his that hasnt dominioned up to luck+3 (especially if that province has been dominioned/spelled to misfortune+3).

Not really. He is not screwed since standart luck zero give you 50/50 chance of good or bad events. And turmoil just affects the chance of the event happening, not the ratio between god or bad. Also, regardless of your order/turmoil scale, the max number of random events per turn is still limited to 3, baring special cases like Doom Horrors, etc. And that limit will be reached relatively quickly as you empire grow.

Stormbinder · #7 July 30th, 2004, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Sheap:
I don't read the posting in Graeme's link the same as everyone else I guess. This is the original posting that convinced me only home province matters at all.

quote:

Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects.

(It's on page 5)

This seems very clear and straightforward to me. Did he make a mistake in this statement? The only thing province scales would seem to do is restrict whether nor not the extreme events (i.e. barbarian hordes, caspar of the cave) are allowed there or not. Since most events both good and bad are allowed with any scales, this wouldn't have a huge effect.

Generaly I agree, although local scales do effect events to significant degree, because a lot of events are scales related (not only luck scales but all scales). But the main point about home capital's luck seem to be pretty straight forward, unless KrissO is mistaken.

That's why I suggested that casting bad luck spell on somebody's capital could screw his entire empire for several turns, if this information is correct.