Random Magic Paths - is it truly random?

[The_Tauren13]

alexti said:
Now, am I missing something? Sages have complete random, right?

Indeed. I must have been smoking something, for I was basing my probabilities off of there being only 6 magic paths

alexti said:
However, when you play the game, some result *has* to happened. There isn't any "highly probable" result.

Yes, I have not been too terribly clear. What I am specifically looking for is: large numbers of random mages of the same type being recruited, and a particular path having been unrepresented. So to refute my hypthesis, simply find several games in which all paths of magic are represented. The reason I was thinking a test game, though, is that in normal games (or at least my games) don't tend to have enough mages of one particular type to really formulate any conclusion. What I was thinking is just playing several games and recruiting 100+ mages, perhaps Vanheim dwarves as in the origional situation, and observing if frequently only 7 paths will be represented in the set.

alexti said:
I don't doubt your counting and I don't suspect your data, I just questioning the conclusion you make from those observations...

Which I do not deny are questionable, which is why I am making the attempt to gather somewhat more concrete data.

alexti said:
To my knowledge deterministic/stochastic nature [of nearly anything] have not been established by the science and I haven't heard about anybody getting anywhere closer to understanding of those things.

There is no reliable evidence, either way. In quantum machanics, effective observation is impossible. You cannot observe particle behavior without interfering with it. Also, simply because we do not have the means of predicting the exact behavior of such particles does not mean it is not possible to do so.

Yes, the general trend these days is to believe in Quantum Indeterminacy. This may have much to do with why I don't. I prefer to follow the less beaten paths. For example, I am currently working on an astrophysical project with the purpose of providing evidence to support Modified Newtonian Dynamics, an alternative theory to the widely supported Dark Matter Theory. Science requires disbelievers in order to continue its advancement. Where would we be if nobody ever questioned that the world was flat?

[Graeme Dice]

The_Tauren13 said:
Where would we be if nobody ever questioned that the world was flat?

About the same place we are now, since very few people ever believed that the world was flat.

[alexti]

The_Tauren13 said:
The reason I was thinking a test game, though, is that in normal games (or at least my games) don't tend to have enough mages of one particular type to really formulate any conclusion. What I was thinking is just playing several games and recruiting 100+ mages, perhaps Vanheim dwarves as in the origional situation, and observing if frequently only 7 paths will be represented in the set.

You're right about the need to do it in testing game. I've started counting randoms in some finished game and noticed how few spectres have water. Then I've realized that I was using spectres with water as mini-SC for raiding, and obviously I've lost quite a few of them.

[alexti]

About the tests. I suggest to take Jotuns or C'tis or Ermor with death mage pretender, research to Well of Misery and then set couple of mages on summon spectres monthly. After 24 hosting 24 turns you'll get 96 random picks (I was choosing multiplication of 8, so that Bummer_Duck's number (may I call it duck number?), which is max percentage of picks concentrated in 3 paths, can reach its ideal value.
Move all non-spectres out and count results in F1 screen. It seems to be doable under 10 minutes (unlike buying mages which can not be queued). I've just run 2 test games:

Game 1.
F-13,A-12,W-13,E-13,S-11,D-11,N-11,B-12. Duck number is 41%.

Game 2.
F-12,A-12,W-9,E-15,S-9,D-14,N-14,B-11. Duck number is 45%.