OT: The Future of Computer Strategy Games

[dogscoff]

I think turn-based 4X games are going to continue to fall farther behind other genres in terms of taking advantage of increased computing capabilities.

I disagree. In fact, I could argue the opposite, as long as by "increased computing abilities" you don't just mean "better graphics cards".
How long does it take to process a turn in SE4 on a pentium-II 350? How long would it take to process the same turn on a top-of-the-line quad-code whatever-the-hell-they're-selling-these-days? How's that for tkaing advantage of increased computing abilities?

I think the SE series is probably the only long-term viable business model - a joint labor of love between a programmer of the basic game engine and talented modders. There is probably enough money in selling the game engine to keep a one-man-band operation like MM going,

Something to consider here is that even though we occupy a niche, and that niche probably isn't gaining more market share, the market is a part of is getting bigger, so the customer base for this kind of game is expanding:

Suppose 4X fans represent 0.5% of all gamers.[1] Suppose that in 2001 there were 1 billion gamers worldwide. 0.5% of 1 billion gives 5 million potential customers for Malfador. Now suppose that by 2008 the number of gamers has risen to 1.5billion worldwide. The proportion of 4X fans hasn't risen- it's still 0.5% of all gamers, but 0.5% of 1.5billion is 7.5million- a much larger potential customer base for any 4X product, meaning more moeny for development than before. Now whether that extra money will all go to Malfador, or will be shared between other, competing 4X games is another issue, but the point is, even if we remain a tiny niche within the gamoverse, there will always be plenty of cash to fund future 4X development.

[1] All numbers plucked magically out of my arse, for demonstration purposes only.

[capnq]

dogscoff said:

Something to consider here is that even though we occupy a niche, and that niche probably isn't gaining more market share, the market is a part of is getting bigger, so the customer base for this kind of game is expanding [...] the point is, even if we remain a tiny niche within the gamoverse, there will always be plenty of cash to fund future 4X development.

I don't think the amount of development funding is as big an obstacle as the fact that the best software designers can make so much more money outside the game industry. The "labor of love" part is the main thing that keeps people in game design.

[Atrocities]

Sadly I believe that all aspects of computer gaming are doomed.

I firmly believe that the gaming market will continue to grow and expand more toward consul games and away from PC games as consul technology continues to improve.

I think the development of new PC type games, especially 4x and similar, has been back burnered for sometime now in favor of the development of new consul games. Regrettably, I don't see this ever changing for the betterment of PC games. In fact I think it is a safe assumption to say that the PC game market share is going to continue to dwindle and funds for development of new games are going to dry up to the point where we might, if we are lucky, see one or two new PC games every few years or so.

Everything runs it's course and there is no exception for PC games. Just look at what is being developed now and you can see that many PC game genera's have been retired in favor of twitch and shoot low brow type games of little to know imagination with absurdly stupid story lines geared toward the ever stupidly growing teenage gamer market and high school drop out 20 somethings who still live in their mothers basement playing games all day. Sadly the era of great PC gaming, and indeed great PC strategy games, have long since passed, replaced by sub-par imitations and countless remakes of old games.

When the bulk of the mmorpg market moves away from PC toward consul the final nails in the PC gaming industry will be driven in and the coffin lid of inspired and revolutionary personal computer games will be feared as closed for good.

[narf poit chez BOOM]

People have been saying PCs are dying for years. Until consoles get keyboards, hard drives, data access, internet and etc. equal to PCs, I do not see that happening...

...And hey, in that case, you're right back to PCs!

[Atrocities]

narf poit chez BOOM said:
People have been saying PCs are dying for years. Until consoles get keyboards, hard drives, data access, internet and etc. equal to PCs, I do not see that happening...

...And hey, in that case, you're right back to PCs!

Congratulations Narf, you just described an XBox 360.

[StarShadow]

Which, as Narf said, is basicly a PC (except with more limitations).

[Atrocities]

But its not a PC. Its a consul.

[BudgetMessiah]

Sadly I believe that all aspects of computer gaming are doomed.

I think the development of new PC type games, especially 4x and similar, has been back burnered for sometime now in favor of the development of new consul games. Regrettably, I don't see this ever changing for the betterment of PC games.

I can't play Company of Heroes or Supreme Commander on a console. At the moment, there's actually no console that's even remotely powerful enough to run either. That, and consoles do not have adequate controls for true RTS players.

Ditto for FPS. They can kludge it with analog controllers, but most FPS players I know who have touched a keyboard and mouse setup can never go back.

People have been lamenting the end of PC gaming since the days of the PS1. So far, it hasn't happened. I have a feeling that eventually consoles and PCs will eventually become so similar, the lines will be blurred to the point of nonexistance, but there will always be customizable, do-it-yourself PCs to be bought and built...and that's really the only difference between consoles and PCs in the context being described here.

[Atrocities]

I will always prefer a PC over a console system. I just think it is a better gaming platform.

[BudgetMessiah]

A lot of my friends (and I) would agree with you, Atrocities. But I also know some people who can't be bothered with the hassle of installing/configuring new hardware, and dealing with various incompatability issues and the usual maintenance that goes with having a computer, so for them a console is better.

I think there will always be a market for both types of user, and the big difference is that the OS platforms will eventually become compatible. I personally don't see why that hasn't already happened, save for the licensing-for-profit aspect of keeping certain titles exclusive to a platform like the X-Box.