The Bogarus Problem

[JimMorrison]

So you're saying that you would trade a 50% chance of surviving the early game with a 10% chance of victory, for an 80% chance of surviving the early game, with a 5% chance of victory?

I really have to say, there isn't much in the game that will earn less respect from me in the game, than someone running around with an awake PoD. Not that I disrespect those people, but it's like going out and buying yourself a Corvette on your 40th birthday. >.>

Generally in my experience - it's highly improbable to have your awake SC, with dom9-10 and self buffing ability - and also have good enough scales that you can support your conventional army expanding AND have mages for researching and eventual forging. Hell, I have tried out so many builds for 10-12 turns, and depending on quality of neighboring provinces, sometimes a really high scales build has trouble keeping up with mages.

With Cold3, a D5/E4 PoD with 10 dom has 53 design points left over. That's 1 scale. So do you go Sloth3 to get Magic1 and Order 3? So your opponent knows, as potentially frightening as your pretender is, you have squat for troops. Yes, you can still claim that the awake PoD is still an effective deterrent. People know that even if they can take you, you can make it costly and painful for them, negating the benefit of performing the early rush. I would think that having large numbers of highly mobile and multi-purpose cavalry units, would be able to provide similar deterrent effect, especially if your research is doing well.

I'm not trying to claim that an awake pretender is never worth it - obviously people often win with them - I am just saying that if your primary incentive is to use it to dissuade people from rushing you out, it's more of a placebo effect in most cases, than anything else. I'd just rather get eliminated by an early rush several times in a row (how improbable would that be?) before finally getting a good solid start, than to spend 2 months playing a nation with gimped scales, clinging to the small shred of a chance that I might actually ultimately win the game.


I guess here is the crux of my argument:

Most of the highly experienced MP vets recommend an awake pretender for Bogarus.

Bogarus has not won a single MP game yet.

Therefore, it seems to me, that playing what looks like the longer odds of going for better scales or a more magically apt pretender, may be the missing link in their success.


I know I'm crazy, but that doesn't interfere with my ability to use the internets!

[Lingchih]

JimMorrison said:
Bogarus has not won a single MP game yet.

Hold your horses. Micah is playing Bogarus now in Artifacts. I would never count him out playing any nation.

[JimMorrison]

Lingchih said:

Hold your horses. Micah is playing Bogarus now in Artifacts. I would never count him out playing any nation.

Hey, I'm just saying! It would lend a lot of weight to the "Bogarus needs an awake SC" camp, if they had actually won an MP game with that strat.

But I'm doubting anyone would do an awake pretender in the Artifacts scenario, so best we can hope for there is evidence that the awake SC is NOT needed.

Unless Micah's idea of an insane prank, is to gear out a -20hp rainbow chassis on turn 2 and go to town. o.O

[Renojustin]

JimMorrison said:
It would lend a lot of weight to the "Bogarus needs an awake SC" camp, if they had actually won an MP game with that strat.

Kind of begs the question, Jim, how many games have you won with any strategy?

[JimMorrison]

Renojustin said:

Kind of begs the question, Jim, how many games have you won with any strategy?

Oh rhetoric is fun. As you can see by the HoF, no one has won an MP game with Bogarus, including me. How many times have you lost an MP game as Bogarus, with an awake pretender?



Part of my point was that if you are going to use the SC defensively only, then the issue is essentially moot anyways. You are trading a defensive bonus against small highly blessed armies - at the expense of making yourself more vulnerable to strong scales strats. What are you going to do if an O3/P3/G3 Marignon shows up with 200 crossbowmen? That sort of raw firepower can rout a PD in one volley, and kill a pretender with the next.

There is a simple rule in dominions - you can't be prepared for every contingency, at any given time. That being the case, it just seems kind of silly to base your entire strat around what you think is the biggest threat in the first 6-8 turns. I can't believe I'm the only one who thinks that if you're going to be eliminated, that's the best time for it. I'd much rather have a really strong mid-late game with a shaky start, than to have a misleadingly strong start, with a late game that is weaker than optimal. You can argue that it isn't, but simply taking Drain, losing 2 RP per researcher for the entire game - may not be hurting you, in the way that you look at it, but it is compromising what is considered to be one of the greatest strengths of Bogarus. If your build is able to keep that 1Magic instead, your research will be utterly insane, and you won't have to survive very long to start leveraging that power.

[Micah]

Good expansion gives you a good mid/end game. SCs give you a good expansion rate, especially with a nation like Bogarus. +100% provinces in the first year is worth more than +10% income. You can also cover all the important scales just fine with an SC build.

[Dedas]

I found out that playing Bogarus as Maverni (in Baalz guide) was very successful. That means using good scales to buy as many bodies as possible, boost them and thus survive early game. Later on you use your mages and excellent research advantage to win.

[K]

Micah said:
Good expansion gives you a good mid/end game. SCs give you a good expansion rate, especially with a nation like Bogarus. +100% provinces in the first year is worth more than +10% income. You can also cover all the important scales just fine with an SC build.

True, but you have to to be able to keep those provinces. A single SC is fodder for any number of countermeasures while sustained growth backed by mixed forces is much harder to counter.