Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Squirrelloid]

assuming independent province by province checks with neutral scales, a 300 province territory should have a .9^300 chance for each event not happening, which as you might imagine is vanishingly small. (10^-14)

Ok, so we need a new model. Chris's model doesn't have any effect for empire size, so that clearly isn't right.

thejeff, is that data listing provinces in the order the events happened?

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Squirrelloid

assuming independent province by province checks with neutral scales, a 300 province territory should have a .9^300 chance for each event not happening, which as you might imagine is vanishingly small. (10^-14)

Ok, so we need a new model. Chris's model doesn't have any effect for empire size, so that clearly isn't right.

thejeff, is that data listing provinces in the order the events happened?

I still don't get the criticism.

I'm suggesting first determine how many provinces get event checks. Then run each event check through a provinces event mask.
But I'll do some tests...

[Squirrelloid]

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

I still don't get the criticism.

I'm suggesting first determine how many provinces get event checks. Then run each event check through a provinces event mask.
But I'll do some tests...

Ok, two things:

First, as thejeff pointed out, if you determine #events before you look province-by-province, then province scales have no effect on how likely an event is. Yet they clearly claim to do so.

Second, my point was if you generate #events first, you ignore #provinces. Yet there's certainly the perception that larger empires have more events (we need real data to actually confirm, but it does meet my anecdotal experience). At which point, generating #events first doesn't account for increasing average # of events based on number of provinces owned that doesn't result in obvious asymptotes or the like at some point. (And remember, JK's known algorithm work has already rejected x^2+y^2=z^2 as too complicated).

[chrispedersen]

ok; With 50 turns, 0 luck 0 luck -3 +3 4 territories
22, 27, 54, and 46 luck events

With 8 territories same scales
24 24 64 55 luck events.


A few observational data.

1. With over 100 turns run - there were never any turns with
ZERO luck events (after turn 1).
2. I watched various emigration events where pop was lost.
There were never any pop gains the same turn.
3. Four events occured to one nation once in both sample sizes.


Number distribution
With 4 territories
0,1,2,3,4
33,11,4,1
26,19.4
15.17.11.5.1
19,18,7,5



With 8 territories,
0 1 2 3 4
28,19,3,0
29,18,3,0
10,16,29,3,1
11,24,13,2

[Finalgenesis]

I will admit to not being able to fully understand this. So all tests below were with 4 nations each? When you say 22,27,54,46 luck events, you mean for the 4 nations seperately over 50 turns? For the ones below, 0,1,2,3,4 are events and the 4 rows are for 4 nations? the 26, 19.4 is that over 50 turns 26 had no event, 19 had 1 event and 4 had 2 events?

Originally Posted by chrispedersen

ok; With 50 turns, 0 luck 0 luck -3 +3 4 territories
22, 27, 54, and 46 luck events

With 8 territories same scales
24 24 64 55 luck events.


A few observational data.

1. With over 100 turns run - there were never any turns with
ZERO luck events (after turn 1).
2. I watched various emigration events where pop was lost.
There were never any pop gains the same turn.
3. Four events occured to one nation once in both sample sizes.


Number distribution
With 4 territories
0,1,2,3,4
33,11,4,1
26,19.4
15.17.11.5.1
19,18,7,5



With 8 territories,
0 1 2 3 4
28,19,3,0
29,18,3,0
10,16,29,3,1
11,24,13,2

[chrispedersen]

Originally Posted by Finalgenesis

I will admit to not being able to fully understand this. So all tests below were with 4 nations each? When you say 22,27,54,46 luck events, you mean for the 4 nations seperately over 50 turns? For the ones below, 0,1,2,3,4 are events and the 4 rows are for 4 nations? the 26, 19.4 is that over 50 turns 26 had no event, 19 had 1 event and 4 had 2 events?

1. No. 50 turns were done for 4 nations with 4 provinces.
50 turns were done for 4 nations with 8 provinces.
2. correct.
3. No. In the second data I am presenting the number distribution. Nation 2 had 26 turns with 0 events, 19 with 1, 4 with 2.