WinSP MBT: Das Reich

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by IronDuke99

This subject has been done to death in other places but Sealion never stood any chance of success whatever. None.

It's why I had to go back and change a few things (Churchill, King, Goering) to make Sealion *possible*, and even then; I had to stick to a limited Sea Lion.

Most of the 'Classic' Sea Lion Scenarios posited such as by Kenneth Macksey in his Book "INVASION" in 1980 start with the Germans gaining a foothold, proceeding to Line #1, then... LONDON [tm] and Line #2.

Classical Sea Lion Map

In my envisioned Leichte Sea Lion, air landings then backed up by sea reinforcements come on a line from Bexhill to Ramsgate (about 50 miles frontage); and the deepest penetrations *may* come within artillery range of the outskirts of London (or not).

In any event, the Germans can't truly *conquer* England, not unless we Alien Space Bat so many things that this isn't World War II anymore, but some sort of weird parallel universe with reptilians.

What they can do is try to force a negotiated peace through a series of political shocks against England similar to that done to Denmark, Norway, Belgium, France, Yugoslavia, Greece by Germany, and much later in World War II by America against Japan in August 1945.

I know; it's kind of weak, but I'm trying my best to make something that's not too outlandish.

Some political shocks that are possible are:

A.) An actual invasion of England, as opposed to aerial bombardment.

B.) Capture of significant portion of the BEF around Dunkirk -- historically 338,000~ men escaped while about 50,000 men in total walked into captivity. A total German crushing of Dunkirk isn't possible, due to RAF aerial cover and Royal Navy fire support; along with the internal logistics of assaulting Dunkirk -- the British and French can collapse their perimeter step by step, making their defenses stronger with each mile -- but you can reduce the amount of men escaping from Dunkirk to say, maybe 50-60% of what it was historically. This has some important effects, as the BEF was the long-service cream of the British Army at the time AFAIK.

C.) The Royal Navy can be significantly blooded in the North Sea / Channel, when they intervene. It's worth noting that the RN had global commitments, reducing the actual strength they can bring into operation in Home Waters:

ROYAL NAVY SHIPS, JUNE 1940 (Part 1 of 4)
ROYAL, DOMINION and INDIAN NAVY SHIPS, JUNE 1940 (Part 4 of 4)

(cruisers and DDs not counted, as I'd have to count each one individually from the lists)

Home Waters Around England:
4 x BB (Barham, Nelson, Rodney, Valiant)
3 x BC (Renown, Repulse, Hood)
2 x CV (Ark Royal, Furious)

North Atlantic (Near Gibraltar)
1 x BB (Resolution)
1 x CL (Arethusa)

Mediterranean Fleet:
4 x BB (Malaya, Ramilles, Royal Sovereign, Warspite)
2 x CV (Eagle, Argus)

South Atlantic Command
1 x CV (Hermes) Near West Africa

Bermuda/Halifax Escort Force:
1 x BB (Revenge) at Halifax, Canada

Royal Australian Navy / Canadian / New Zealand: Concentrated in their home waters basically.

Then there's the wild card of the French Navy:

2 x BB (Paris, Courbet) in service, with 2 x BB (Richeliu, Jean Bart) under construction, plus the attendant heavy (cruisers) and light (destroyers) escorts.

If Churchill is not PM, do the British have the intestinal fortitude necessary to shell the French fleet and sink it at anchor and/or blockade/intern them to remove them from the equation?

Against this, the German Navy is:

1 x BB (Bismarck) -- is still new and working up.
2 x Unavailable BC (Scharnhorst, Gneisenau) - In repair yards until December 1940.
2 x Unavailable CB (Admiral Scheer, Lützow) -- Scheer is on a raiding cruise, while Lutzow is under repair until Spring 1941.
2 x CA (Adm Hipper, Prinz Eugen) -- Hipper is earmarked for Sea Lion support, while Prinz Eugen is still new and working up.
3 x CL (Emden, Köln, Nürnberg)
14 x DD (Z4, Z5, Z6, Z7, Z8, Z10, Z14, Z15, Z16, Z18, 19, 20, 21, 22) (approximately)
3 x Coming Soon DD (Z23, Z24, Z25) -- Commissioned Sep-Nov 1940.

On paper, the correlation of naval forces in home waters is untenable enough that even Hitler would be leery of putting Sea Lion on.

But as I posited earlier, what if Goering was marginally wounded less in 1923; so he's not as much of a morphine addict as he was in real life?

Goering was pretty charismatic when he wasn't doped up to the gills on drugs.

In real life, the Germans from July to September 1940 lost 1,600~ combat aircraft (classified destroyed on operations): Link to Strategy for Defeat The Luftwaffe 1933-1945 Table IX

That's bad; but what if the losses were shaved a bit off (4-5% less) to higher initial starting strengths, due to Goering being more competent over the years leading up to 1940?

Also of note is the extremely low loss rate (relatively speaking) in the Ju-87 units -- only 21% of initial strength, compared to 45% in bomber units and 66% in twin engine fighter units.

The Ju-87B can carry a 1,100 lb bomb out to a combat radius of 275 km; that's enough to essentially cover the English Channel and southern parts of the North Sea from bases in France. I don't have the ranges for -87B with the 2,200 lb bomb, but eh. A more coherent, less overweight Goering could convince Hitler that "no, the Kriegsmarine can't stop the Royal Navy, but my Luftwaffe can".

With the air forces on both sides being far more powerful than they were in WWI, battles between the Royal Navy and Kriegsmarine might actually resemble more the frenzied night fighting between the USN and IJN near Guadalcanal, with small task forces from both sides steaming into the area for bombardment of the landing zone / night fighting around midnight each night; with the damaged ships on both sides from that night's fighting becoming centerpieces for the next day's aerial battles.

With a much weaker internal British political establishment -- no Churchill, a pro-German sympathetic king in Edward VIII, and the political elite in London being able to see the flashes of gunfire in Southern England on certain nights; along with the steady attrition of the RAF and Royal Navy every day; an armistice isn't so far fetched as it might sound.

It's still a very long shot; but it's better than "Germans invade England on a 120~ mile invasion landing front, and then push 50-60 miles inland and occupy London and execute a reign of terror." in terms of plausibility.

NOTE: As an aside, a lot of scenarios are writing themselves in my head -- the old SSI Fighting Steel game with the Fighting Steel Project mod would have been awesome for this confused night fighting, but alas, Fighting Steel's engine relied on a specific implementation of DirectX that was eliminated by Microsoft only months after the original game release in 1999.

[MarkSheppard]

Actually, you know, I had a long walk with the dog, and I realized I was over thinking things.

No invasion of England is actually needed to force Britain into an armistice if there's no Churchill and Edward VIII is on the throne.

The shock of France crumbling in just 43 days (as opposed to grinding it out to the end over 4 years as in WWI), followed by the loss of a significant portion of the BEF into captivity would be enough to shake the British government to it's core and raise calls for an armistice.

You know, I can't help but wonder if people were calling for that in May 1940 in real life. I'd sure love to read British newspapers from back then.

It's just that you know...it's a CHALLENGE, damnit to make a Sea Lion that's somewhat plausible.

[FASTBOAT TOUGH]

It is fairly well known now that the German Naval High Command opposed Sea Lion almost from the beginning, the Battle of Britain sealed the fate of that operation. Hitler as we know would draw his attention back to Russia as he saw the Soviet Socialists system as a bigger threat not only to himself but the world. He did after all saw himself as a "crusader" at times. Also it should be noted that almost to the mid/or end of the WWII he still thought some accommodation could be made with England.

I believe to get a better picture of Churchill, mood of the English and military status and issues I would highly recommend reading William Manchester's (w/Paul Reid who Manchester personally chose to finish Vol. III) Vol. II The Last Lion/Alone, 1932-1940 Pub. 1988 and Vol. III The Last Lion/Defender Of The Realm, 1940-1965 Pub. 2012 (Which greatly benefited from the release of classified documents from all the major powers involved starting from 1995 on.), you would be hard pressed to find a better all round references. I personally found them very insightful and feel he was the best (Unfortunately in part also in his uncanny way of predicting future events leading well into The Cold War.) of the "Big Four" he wasn't perfect but, he was better than good. It's worth noting his bust was and is again the only foreign leader to be honored and held in the White House to my limited knowledge.

Regards,
Pat


Regards,

[IronDuke99]

A good deal of the Royal Australian and Royal New Zealand navies were actually not in their home waters in 1939-40, but supporting the RN in the Med and Atlantic, etc. Canadian troops were also in UK.

the lower losses of the JU87's were purely because they suffered such heavy losses in their early operations against Britain, that the German Air Force had to totally withdraw them from operations over and close to UK.

Also worth bearing in mind that the German Air Force in 1939-40, in common with most other air forces, was actually not all that good at sinking enemy warships that early in the war.(although they improved later on).

I am not all that convinced that Edward VIII was really all that pro German and, in any case, even in 1940 the views of a British King, were hardly all that important in political as opposed to propaganda terms.

Yes a UK without Churchill might, maybe, have made peace with Germany after the fall of France, if the German terms had been generous enough (ie, no loss of territory, no German troops on any British territory at home or overseas, no concessions to Italy, full exchange of prisoners, etc). However even such a peace would have seen UK continue to re-arm and, perhaps to Britain's advantage, might have enabled this to happen without British bankruptcy by 1942...