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September 15th, 2009, 06:39 AM
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Private
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Germany
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Re: OW describes the "Zeroing Effect" for Begginers
I'm not sure if I understand what you're saying, but naturally the formulas are not supposed to work for regular 2d6 (except for results below 6), the distribution is different as soon as we start rerolling.
In some approximate sense k represents the number of 6's rolled, at least for large values, but not exactly. See my example for getting DRN=7: there we have 7 = 5*1+1+1, so k=1 and r=1 and the P(DRN=7) = ((6-1)*5*1+1)/6^3 = 26/216 = 13/108, but among the 6 different ways of getting this there are 4 without any 6's and 2 with 1.
So k and r don't really depend on how you got your result, they are computed simply from the desired number X as
r = (X-1) % 5 (remainder)
k = (X-1)/5 (integer division, remainder dropped)
It might be possible to divide the result in two parts, each representing probabilities of getting the asked DRN with a given number of 6's. I have not looked into that, but if it is possible, it might lead to a more intuitive proof. Mine is using induction on k, and does not look very nice. On the other hand it works for any N-sided dice (N>1).
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September 8th, 2009, 07:49 PM
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Major General
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: OW describes the "Zeroing Effect" for Begginers
The other thing to remember is that 2.4 average damage is much better than 2.4 uniform damage. At first brush it feels like that takes 4+ hits to kill most humans, but in actuality it kills several and maims a bunch immediately because of how stuff lumps. In an ideal distribution each attack with that damage kills 24% of 10 hitpoint units which is waaaay better than knocking 24% off of everybody's hps.
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September 13th, 2009, 03:26 PM
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First Lieutenant
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: UK
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Re: OW describes the "Zeroing Effect" for Begginers
Okay, there is a small error. I'll repost the tables on Monday.
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