What happens in 2025? / new tactics- new technologies

[MarkSheppard]

GPS guided bombs from standoff distances are playing a larger part:



Russians are starting to serially produce helicopter UAS:

https://twitter.com/Karmabash/status...96852709884036

https://t.me/mertviorku/3813

Serial production of new unmanned Termit helicopters was shown in the Russian Federation - Defense Express

They can carry three laser-guided missiles and fire at a distance of up to six kilometers. The drone itself reaches a speed of 150 km/h and can stay in the air for up to six hours.

It is noted that drones were being developed even before the invasion of Ukraine, and at least three of them are at a high level of readiness.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/statu...61730954608865

Russia's PPSh Lab is starting to mass-produce its "Triton" counter-FPV system that can be mounted on tanks, vehicles and stationary targets; the backpack version is for assault ground troops - presumably that backpack can suppress FPV drone signals as well.

Ukraine is now placing UGVs into service

https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1698599349859578357

the ground drone "Karakurt" has appeared in the service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine , the "Engineering Corps" association, which is engaged in the development of equipment for our military.

The drone is good at overcoming trenches and earthen embankments. It was named after the most poisonous spider found in Ukraine - the karakurt. This ground drone was developed on the basis of a gyroboard. It can be made in 2 days with a team of 3-4 people. Now there are dozens of them on the front lines.

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/...98508582990192

Russian sources write that the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦Ukraine, in addition to kamikaze aerial drones, are beginning to use remote-controlled ground drones. Mobile drones are maneuverable and silent. According to Russian soldiers, these drones have a heat sensor, as soon as they get close, the drone detonates

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/statu...94103283859909

New weapon used by Ukraine per Russian report

A ground drone loaded with explosive to clear Russian trenches ahead of an assault

This one, unfortunately, did not work out as intended

[DRG]

https://sundries.ua/en/ukrainian-arm...he-first-time/

[MarkSheppard]

More UGVs:

Footage of the Ukranian minelaying UGVs in the front:

https://twitter.com/clashreport/stat...07371711410391
Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles are being at the front for laying anti-tank mines.

The AFU has deployed to combat the "Ironclad" UGV, which is armed with the Remote weapon station SHABLYA + thermal sight

https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1745848837732745631
https://twitter.com/infussambas/stat...26258867679650

It seems that AFU is now deploying fixed site versions of the Shablya RWS:

https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/la...use-by-ukraine

Three of the armed and thermal/video image-equipped RWS, built by Lviv robotics manufacturer Roboneers, have been approved for use by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to a Ministry of Defence (MOD) statement published late last year.

...

The Ukrainian MOD has approved the ShaBlya remote weapon station for use in conducting reconnaissance, identifying targets on the battlefield, for checkpoint and border defence as well as offensively engaging infantry, lightly armoured combat vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and suppressing opposing firing positions.

The rotating tripod turret system can reportedly be armed with a 7.62mm, M240 or M2 machine gun, automatic grenade launcher and other weapons to engage targets up to 1,200 metres away. It has also previously been shown using a Steamdeck console as its controller and aiming maintained on a video monitor from a distance of 100 metres via direct cable.

Or basically...

[Suhiir]

Originally Posted by DRG

https://sundries.ua/en/ukrainian-arm...he-first-time/

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

The AFU has deployed to combat the "Ironclad" UGV, which is armed with the Remote weapon station SHABLYA + thermal sight
https://twitter.com/Alfaiomi/status/1745848837732745631
https://twitter.com/infussambas/stat...26258867679650

I expect to see a LOT of these, or something similar, in future conflicts.

[MarkSheppard]

This will only increase as the world faces a manpower crunch due to collapsing birthrates.

You'll see this with the increasing penetration of UGVs to do tasks traditionally seen as manpower intensive or very dangerous:

Minelaying
Mineclearing
Scouting
Manning fixed defensive lines

IOW; with a TFR of less than 2.1 in many countries; you can't just scout using the traditional method of "drive down that road until something happens or you get blown up" (aka advance to contact).

Not enough manpower anymore to be like that. So robots will be the ones advancing to contact.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard

This will only increase as the world faces a manpower crunch due to collapsing birthrates.

IOW; with a TFR of less than 2.1 in many countries; you can't just scout using the traditional method of "drive down that road until something happens or you get blown up" (aka advance to contact).

Not enough manpower anymore to be like that. So robots will be the ones advancing to contact.

Its a lot simpler to "order" a robot to " Go over to that tree line and draw fire"

That ties in with something I noticed recently in building a little scenario to "simulate" that engagement between the Ukrainian Bradleys and the T-90 attached

In the game it's trickier than RL as the T-90 can detect the Brads no matter which way it's facing

You need to dismount the troops in the Brads to distract i.e "draw fire" OR you use the drone that I added to simulate the one that was used to record the event

Even then, it's tricky getting the Brads into position without losing one

[Dion]

I know a lot of robots that would be really good at that, especially the ones who call you and can talk. Not only the robots, but also the people that run them too, people who think they are protected by the constitutional right of free speech to program robots to trick the gullible to answer questions that make people feel foolish for answering, then asking the person for money based on how they answer the question. What a disgrace.

[Felix Nephthys]

Originally Posted by Dion

I know a lot of robots that would be really good at that, especially the ones who call you and can talk. Not only the robots, but also the people that run them too, people who think they are protected by the constitutional right of free speech to program robots to trick the gullible to answer questions that make people feel foolish for answering, then asking the person for money based on how they answer the question. What a disgrace.

Can this be modeled in the game? Seriously though, this is a story I'd like to hear more about. They have blackmail droids now?

[MarkSheppard]

Originally Posted by Felix Nephthys

Seriously though, this is a story I'd like to hear more about. They have blackmail droids now?

OK, this is a slight detour from SPCAMO games, but I think it's worthy to tell in some detail, if nothing else but to get the word out so that people are less likely to fall for scams.

Okay.

AI blackmail / Whitemail is a variant of the old "bad news" scam:

You get a message or phone call in the middle of the night saying that your son/daughter has been in a car accident / been arrested / whatever; and that they need money (which of course is gonna be gift cards).

What makes AI Black/Whitemail so much more dangerous is that AI is advanced enough to "fake a voice" if given a sufficiently long speech sample -- maybe 20 seconds of you talking might be enough for them to make an AI to fake your voice with 85% accuracy.

So now, instead of a super sketchy text message saying that your son has been in an accident -- it literally sounds like your son/daughter is calling you -- maybe from jail; maybe from the hospital, doesn't matter.

AI voice algorithms have also given new life to the "indian call center scam" -- i.e. you get a call from "Microsoft Tech Support" saying that they've detected a virus on your computer; and if you would do the needful, they can fix it for you (which entails you setting up a remote connection to their PC, allowing them to steal everything of note on your hard drive).

The Indian Call Center Scam has been slowly dying out as people now refuse to answer any calls which have Indian accents.

Enter real time voice AI synthesization -- now they don't sound like Pradvisha from Delhi, but John from Peoria.

It's not 100% though; because of the limited english skills of a lot of these call center scammers; they mangle the verbs and syntax of english, so even though they now sound like Bob from Peoria, they are asking you to do the needful.

In a military context; there's a lot you could do with AI voice/visual synthesization (Deep Fakes). For example, you could fake the voice and video of a commanding officer and tell his troops to surrender; or insert fake orders into the command stream -- even if they're countermanded by real orders in the secure encrypted text communications system, it's still uncertainity that slows down the speed of execution of orders if you have to verify each one.

There's also some nastiness; like possibly using AI/Video deepfakes to break POWs to make them give you information; a variant of the "we have captured your children. You will give us your bank account information or we do bad things to them -- and then cut to AI generated audio/video of your children begging for their lives -- a "virtual kidnapping"

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/29/us/ai...cec/index.html

Jennifer DeStefano’s phone rang one afternoon as she climbed out of her car outside the dance studio where her younger daughter Aubrey had a rehearsal. The caller showed up as unknown, and she briefly contemplated not picking up.

But her older daughter, 15-year-old Brianna, was away training for a ski race and DeStefano feared it could be a medical emergency.

“Hello?” she answered on speaker phone as she locked her car and lugged her purse and laptop bag into the studio.

She was greeted by yelling and sobbing.

“Mom! I messed up!” screamed a girl’s voice.

“What did you do?!? What happened?!?” DeStefano asked.

“The voice sounded just like Brie’s, the inflection, everything,” she told CNN recently. “Then, all of a sudden, I heard a man say, ‘Lay down, put your head back.’ I’m thinking she’s being gurnied off the mountain, which is common in skiing. So I started to panic.”

As the cries for help continued in the background, a deep male voice started firing off commands: “Listen here. I have your daughter. You call the police, you call anybody, I’m gonna pop her something so full of drugs. I’m gonna have my way with her then drop her off in Mexico, and you’re never going to see her again.”

DeStefano froze. Then she ran into the dance studio, shaking and screaming for help. She felt like she was suddenly drowning.

After a chaotic, rapid-fire series of events that included a $1 million ransom demand, a 911 call and a frantic effort to reach Brianna, the “kidnapping” was exposed as a scam. A puzzled Brianna called to tell her mother that she didn’t know what the fuss was about and that everything was fine.

[MarkSheppard]

Begun these Drone Wars, they have...


UGV used by Russian forces to deliver ammo in sights of Ukrainian FPV drone.

Also, the happiest dog and his new drone friend....

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/...43593367478592
(Testing of a new AFU Ground Combat Drone armed with RPK)