What happens in 2025? / new tactics- new technologies

[MarkSheppard]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...81037821919526

Ukrainian EW and drone specialist Serhii Flash estimates the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPVs to be around 30%, highly dependent on the unit.

Дуже багатьох цікавить питання ефективності FPV.

До целi долітає та попадае 30% FPV. Це середня цифра по країни. І то її ніхто ніколи не рахував, це просто моє припущення. В одних підрозділів вона може бути часом 70%, а в інших 20%.

Залежить це від таких факторів:
1. Якість БПЛА
2. Правильний підбір частот та протоколів для конкретної ділянки фронту
3. Активність російського РЕБ на дільниці фронту
4. Досвід пілотiв
5. Правильність та достовірність розвідки

Бувае так шо одним підрозділам постiйно дають «жирні» та точні цілі і вонi мають успішність 60%. Їх ставлять у приклад, всіх тягнуть під їхній показник, натомість замовчуючи, як він досягається

Я прошу великих командирів на фронтах «не гнати план». Зростання показників має бути з МІСЯЦЯМИ. Це означає, що підрозділ розвивається.
Але успішність на усiх фронтах різна.

Якщо цікавить моя особиста думка, то довгостроковий показник 50% - це дуже, дуже хороший результат. Але не завжди його реально досягти.

Many are interested in the question of FPV efficiency.

30% FPV reaches and hits the target. This is the average figure for the country. And no one has ever counted her, this is just my guess. In some divisions, it can sometimes be 70%, and in others 20%.

It depends on the following factors:

1. UAV quality
2. Correct selection of frequencies and protocols for a specific section of the front
3. The activity of the Russian EW on the front line
4. Experience of pilots
5. Correctness and reliability of intelligence

It happens that some divisions are constantly given "fat" and precise goals and they have a success rate of 60%. They are set as an example, everyone is dragged under their indicator, instead of keeping silent about how it is achieved

I ask the great commanders on the fronts "not to pursue the plan." The increase in indicators should be with MONTHS. This means that the unit is developing.

But success on all fronts is different.

If you're interested in my personal opinion, a long-term figure of 50% is a very, very good result. But it is not always realistic to achieve it.

[MarkSheppard]

The famous Bradley that mogged that T-90 has a drone jammer on the turret.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/...15646653948411

Apparently the average range of this type of jammer that AFU is using widely is 40 to 80 meters.

It doesn't stop drones from hovering 200-400 meters away and taking video of you with zoom lens; but it does mitigate a little bit of the suicide FPV drone threat...

...with one caveat...

...you've got to be moving. A jamming range of 40-50m means that if you're stationary; even if you jam a suicide FPV drone in it's attack dive, the ballistics of the drone will mean that it has a good chance of hitting you.

Rough figures...

Objects in free fall drop about 25 m/sec.

Average height of a 10-story building is about 30-35m.

A FPV UAV in power dive takes maybe 1 to 1.2 seconds to hit the target.

Bradleys are 6.55m long...figure an average speed of 7 m/sec so that a Bradley can clear it's own length through the aim point for the FPV UAV operator.

That's roughly 25 km/hr (or 15.6 mph).

Essentially, from the math above; if you have a EW Jammer...movement is life.

EDIT: I just realized that Drones themselves are causing combined arms. They force units to be mobile to avoid drone attack runs; which in turn makes the units visible and targets for other weapons systems on the battlefield.

EDIT II -- and of course someone pointed out that the NEXT generation of FPV kamikaze drones coming online will have machine recognition and AI tracking (currently available in larger stuff like Lancets); so they'd be able to track through jamming; unlike a remotely human operated UAV using a datalink.

[Dion]

Ya, people will do anything for money. These "droids" speak perfect English, they don't even have an accent, they laugh and everything. I hate talking to anybody on the phone nowadays that I don't know. People are getting scammed on the phone all the time.

[Suhiir]

Few weeks ago some telemarketer was calling me 5-10 times a day with different offers (i.e. scams) and was using a different "voice" for each. It could/did answer certain basic questions but the general speale was always the same so that sort of gave it away.

[DRG]

"Slightly" off topic but it's not worth making a new thread

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/22/7438289/


A the bottom of the map are given the distance of the Russian advances

500m x 700 m = 10 game hexes by 14 game hexes

450m x 140 m = 9 hexes by 3 ( rounded )

150m = 3 game hexes

They are advances but.......

[Suhiir]

The more I see from Ukraine the more I'm reminded of WWI.

Minus:
Gas
Modern counter-batter makes prolonged artillery pounding a non-issue.
Modern AA makes air strikes VERY difficult.
Suicide drones make even mortars much less of a problem.

[DRG]

Originally Posted by Suhiir

The more I see from Ukraine the more I'm reminded of WWI.

To paraphrase and slightly adjust a quote widely attributed to Stalin....

" in a war of attrition, quantity has a quality all it's own"



Ukraine Population (July 2021 est.) 43,745,640
Russia Population (July 2021 est.) 142,320,790

[Dion]

I like it! As it would give Shrapnel the excuse to do all the little things that they have been saying can't done without having to create a whole new game. I have my doubts that it would work as described though. I think they would accidentally forget to include some of the "old" features of the current system, or forget to include some obscure feature that not many people use, but in reality the feature is very important to some players, just not used by the majority of players.

If they made a whole new game, it would give them a reason to raise the system requirements without ruining the current version. In my opinion that would be an outstanding consequence, as that would mean the graphics and other features would be state of the art!

Really, the only thing I see that's missing are mainly walls, tunnels, and some other obscure types of terrain, and possibly the upgrade of graphics too, but to tell you the truth, I think the current version has the best "top down" graphics on the market. The only games I see that has better graphics are real time games, and if Steel Panthers became a real time game, I think the game would change so much, it would become a different game, as a result, action scenes would become more important than game play.

[MarkSheppard]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/...62908430008813

More drones proliferating, this one is Ukranian

Ground drone with 7.62-mm PKT in service of the 🇺🇦61st Separate Mechanized Brigade.

Combined effects warhead for FPV drones

https://twitter.com/GrandpaRoy2/stat...22462576713729

Ukraine is expanding the variety and lethality of warheads for its FPVs. Here we see a HEAT/ball-bearing fragmentation ammunition with roller bearings added to the front as additional fragmentation pieces. The copper cone to form the explosive jet is nicely visible.

Another thing to note is that when FPVs are used; they're used en masse -- i.e. as of late 2023 / early 2024, instead of lone or triplet FPV attacks, we're seeing swarming attacks; many of them going after a single target.

[MarkSheppard]

Remember that UGV I posted about a few pages back carrying a demolition charge to blow a bridge some 4 km from the operator?

We've gotten the scaled down version

https://twitter.com/War_Gang_/status...67779889119274

Translated from the Polish

Probably the first published (?) use of a robot (UGV) to paralyze 🇷🇺 positions.

The ground unmanned aircraft was - according to the description - carrying a TM-62M anti-tank mine, which was detonated remotely.

This will complement FPV drones to some extent. Why? Because the structures currently used cannot support the weight of the TM-62M (over 9kg); and the drones that can do this only fly at night because they are big and slow.

It is therefore possible that, to some narrow extent, UGVs will be able to complement the activities of drones and multiply each other's actions. FPV drones as fighters covering the way to the target for their driving colleagues 😉

UxV combined arms 😉

And yes - we are aware of the limitations of equipment, terrain, and enemy actions 🙂