Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[Finalgenesis]

Originally Posted by thejeff

I also have a hazy memory of one of the developers saying that events were driven by the capital scales, but I wasn't able to find the post again. It was a long time ago.

Originally Posted by Squirrelloid

First, as thejeff pointed out, if you determine #events before you look province-by-province, then province scales have no effect on how likely an event is. Yet they clearly claim to do so.

I think that it's not too impropable that the luck/turmoil effect on event frequency could be one of those things where either the capital or your pretender scale is used in the event generation formula rather then province-by-province check. This was something I forgot to put in my "clarified post"

[chrispedersen]

Looking at the data I generated, with 50 turns run on a size 4 empire and 50 turns run on a size 8 empire.

With neutral scales, the number of events did not scale between the empire size.

You have the same number of events happening on a size 4 nation, vs a size 8 nation.

Second, I believe the reasons the number of luck events increased so drastically (but not evenly) for +/- luck is because the luck scale increased the number of eligible events in their provinces.

I don't believe its a question of IF a luck event occurs, pick a random event in this territory.

I think its, IF a luck event occurs, check to see if each eligible event in a province occurs.


So, if as I believe there are up to four luck events, and each one has a check to see if it occurs - the actual chance of having an event =4* P(E)*P(EventinProvince)

So changing luck not only increases p(e) it also increases P(eip). This is the only way I can see to account for the doubling of events, and also the consistency that -luck increased the number events more than + luck. While they both may have increased the p(e), the increased the P(eip) unevenly due to the more possible unluck events than luck events.


Second, the same provinces were hit turn after turn with the same events.

Third, some events get turned on on certain turn progressions, 7,10,35, this has a slight dampening on the number of events per turn I posit in the early turns.

However, in the 4 lands test 34 events happened in the first 10 turns, 39 events occured in the last 10 turns.

In the 8 nation test, 34 events happened in the first 10 turn, 43happened in the last 10 turns.