Luck/Turmoil versus Nothing.

[militarist]

It's also possible that it's linear, just Capital is counted as 10-20 provinces for all calculations.

[chrispedersen]

50 turns.

#turmoilevents set to 20.
Nation 1: O3P3 9 events
Nation 2: O3P3 6 events
Nation 3: 03P3 4 events
Controls:
Nation 4: -P3 5 events
Nation 5: P3 22 events.

One territory.

With turmoil events set to 20, this should be a -60% chance of events.

I have no explantion for nation 4, either.

[chrispedersen]

5 nations turmoil events set to 20
50 turns.

8 territories.

ermor O3 5 events
Mar o0 30 events
Saur 03 5 rvents
Agartha o3 5 events
Kailas o0 31 events

Oh, and dominions crashed with turmoil events set to 25.