Ukraine 2021(?)

[MarkSheppard]

RETAC21 on TankNet posted the following writeup on UKR forces:

Looked at this a bit, the Ukrainian Armed Forces started out with:

- 4 tank brigades (regular: 1, 17. reserve: 3, 4, 5): 1, 17 & 4 with T-64; 4 & 5 with T-72, plus a T-64 equipped independent tank battalion, each with 93 tanks

- 9 mechanised brigades (14, 30, 72, 24, 53, 54, 92, 93, 28): each with a tank battalion with T-64, and with the T-84s with the 14th brigade, each with a 31 tank battalion, except the 92nd which had 2.

- 2 mountain assault brigades (10, 128): each with a tank battalion (T-64)

- 4 motorised infantry brigades (56, 57, 58, 59): each with a tank battalion (T-64)

- 2 reserve mechanised brigades (63, 66): each with a tank battalion, but note the 66th was only active from april

- 2 Marine brigades (35, 36): each with a tank battalion (T-80)

- 6 air assault brigades, each with a 10 tank T-72 company

- 4th National Guard Brigade with a T-64 tank battalion

- the Azov regiment and the 9th NG operational regiment had a T-64 company each

So pre-war that makes 825 T-64, 10 T-84, 246 T-72s and 62 T-80 (1.143 total).

In 2017 Ukraine declared 1.818 tanks covered by the CFE treaty, the 2021 Military balance gives these numbers:

MBT 858:

410 T-64BV; 210 T-64BV mod 2017; 100 T-64BM Bulat (720)

100 T-72AV/B1; 33 T-72AMT (133)

5 T-84 Oplot

(34 T-80; 500 T-72; 578 T-64): 1.112 - it also note 20 T-55s but I guess these are memorials and such.

Losses, who knows... per Lostarmour/Oryx (assume these are about 50-70% of actual losses):

T-64: 211/280

T-72: 66/90

T-80: 24/37

Unk: 34

Supplies:

T-72: 386

M-55S: 28

So far I have seen the following newly set-up units:

- 3 infantry brigades (68, 71, Presidential)

- 1 Mechanised brigade (47) with M-55S

So, 1.818-880+386= 1.324 (without taking into accout tanks that may be damaged and non-operational) vs an establishment of 1.174.

So it seems to me that Ukrainian forces started out the war already understrength (75%), losses and vehicles needing repair would have further cut the numbers, and supplies topped up to establishment, at best. Since the Ukrainian Army was essentially a defensive force, much more would be needed to create a further offensive option (the additional 10 brigades mentioned by Ukrainian generals)