Luck test, v 1.00

[curtadams]

Teraswaerto said:
I'm pretty sure Luck will always lose to Order when it comes to money. What it can do is get you a Staff of Storms before turn 10, or something like that.

Well- in this test Luck got 8000 gp in bonuses on an income of about 55000. That's a 15% bonus, which is almost as much as Order gives. Add in the income boost and Luck came out ahead this time, even ignoring all the bonus gems.

[Teraswaerto]

Didn't Growth and Production also affect the income? Agartha had them and Jotun didn't.

[KissBlade]

Luck 3 also spent points on Growth 3 & Prod 3 in this test ...

Another quibble I have with the luck scale, you can get /unlucky/ and attacked by knights or "lucky" and get a horde of militia as followers ...wtf ...

[Meglobob]

curtadams said:

Well- in this test Luck got 8000 gp in bonuses on an income of about 55000. That's a 15% bonus, which is almost as much as Order gives. Add in the income boost and Luck came out ahead this time, even ignoring all the bonus gems.

Yes but take the 3 growth plus 2 prod out of the equation, ie... Order 3 Prod 1 vs Luck 3 Prod 1 and the gold income from order would be considerably more.

Try order 3 prod 1 vs growth 3 prod 1 and order wins by even more probably.

Taking order 3 for alot of nations gives u a big advantage at the moment, its also 100% reliable, luck is not.

[Endoperez]

I counted 7950 gold from positive events for the Luck nation. Only events. The increased revenue from mid-point on not counted in, of course. I think that's where the 8000 gp comes in. If I hadn't taken Growth and Prod, and had had the same events, the 8000 gp would be more than the 15% order would've given. If that doesn't work, I'm too tired and shouldn't be writing anything about numbers.

[Agrajag]

Don't disrespect the free militia, for the few gold you will pay until they die, they make nice arrow-fodder to decrease casualties in more important squads

[curtadams]

Agrajag said:
Don't disrespect the free militia, for the few gold you will pay until they die, they make nice arrow-fodder to decrease casualties in more important squads

That's kind of how I feel about it. In Dom2, they were often catastrophic because of supply issues and it was often hard to use them. Now, with the increased supply, it doesn't seem difficult to make them die usefully for my cause.

[Forrest]

2 players 9 provinces , just hosting

Man/ Manticore/ Dom 10/ Luck +3/ dormant

Ulm/ Manticore/ Dom 10/ Luck -3/ awake +200pts
Ulm only province left by turn 60. Other 8 taken by Indies.

Trn 40

Man
Treasury 35,926 Inc 910 Up 52
Air 98 Water 5 Astral 30 Death 7 Nature 152
27 good events 8 bad 2 mixed 3 national heroes 2 standard heroes with troops.

Ulm
Treasury 23,213 Inc 374 Up 12
Earth 203 Nature 10
8 good events 23 Bad 4 Mixed NO HEROES
4 provinces lost to Knights 1 to Barbarians 1 HELD against Villains(2 heavy inf routed them, very strange)

I suspect hidden sites had a big effect

[Gandalf Parker]

Keep in mind that Tien Chi has 3 different luck boosting pretenders to add on top of these figures.

[curtadams]

Remember in the nine-province runs there's variance based on the other 8 provinces. In Trollman's run above, Arco's (order) initial advantage over Pan (luck) is too low, so Pan's initial provinces are better. Even so, it looks like only a 5% advantage so they're very close in outcome after adjustments. So far it's looking like luck is overall coming out better, although the advantage is slight and the startup and variability issues are important and difficult to catch in these tests.

Forrest's run points out a problem with these test runs - misfortunate invasions. Just "next turning" overstates their effect, because you'd actually send an army out to recover it. But, that's a big pain, and managing the reconquest armies makes it harder to make different nations comparable. You'd need similar cost armies at some standard level - probably with similar resource costs as otherwise "same gold" is a very different power level.

I think the money quote is:

Sheap said:Sure, order/prod is probably better overall but not so much so that everyone will take order 3/misfortune 2 all the time like in dom2.