Luck test, v 1.00

[FrankTrollman]

This was such an interesting idea that I decided to do a test of my own. 4 nations, each with neutral heat scales and a dominion 7 Oracle and 2 positive scales. Arco with Order 3/ Growth 3; Pythium with Productivity 3/Growth 3, Ulm with Order 3/ Productivity 3, and Pangaea with Luck 3/Growth 3.

Initial setup was to purchase all Province Defense up to 10 and then start running turns.

Arco began with an income of 1020 and an upkeep of 25
Pythium began with an income of 733* and an upkeep of 23
Ulm began with an income of 1387 and an upkeep of 14
Pan began with an income of 931 and an upkeep of 25

* Pythium started in a swamp, they were boned.

On turn 10 (I'm controlling for upkeep):

Arco had made 9273 gold and a necromancer.
Pythium had made 6603 gold, 4 Air Gems, Boots of the Messenger, and a hero.
Ulm had made 12631 gold and 7 water gems
Pan had made 8363 gold and 4 Earth gems

On turn 20:

Arco had made 20902 gold, a necromancer, and 20 air gems
Pythium had made 13954 gold, Bartholomeus, Boots of the Messenger, and 4 Air Gems
Ulm had made 27833 gold and 16 Water Gems
Pan had made 21013 gold, 54 militia, 4 Earth Gems, 7 Nature Gems, a Hammer of the Mountains, and a Lightning Rod

On turn 30:

Arco had made 33266 gold, a necromancer, 8 Nature Gems, and 20 air gems
Pythium had made 22115 gold, Bartholomeus, Boots of the Messenger, a High Priest with 33 Militia, and 4 Air Gems
Ulm had made 44468 gold, 37 Flagellants, 4 Fire Gems, and 34 Water Gems
Pan had made 34190 gold, 54 militia, 2 Animists with a combined 40 Wolves, 60 Flagellants, 14 Fire Gems, 6 Air Gems, 11 Earth Gems, 7 Nature Gems, a Hammer of the Mountains, A Sword of Sharpness, a Fire Bola, and a Lightning Rod

So... in 30 turns we've learned what? First, we've learned that swamps are totally ***, and getting started next to a bunch of them is going to jack your income harder than any scales you could imagine.

But more importantly, we've learned that Luck is good. Growth is good. Order is good. And also that your starting setup is probably at least as important as your scales. Ulm, for instance, kept getting water gems, which I believe has something to do with owning provinces with fresh water in them.

-Frank

[KissBlade]

Actually I don't think starting in a location effects any nation's capital. At least it shouldn't have since your income is fixed from your population and the population shouldn't be that deviantial ... still those numbers look odd ...

[PhilD]

Still, Ulm in there (the classical "Order/Productivity" combo) does pretty well. The initial difference in income with Pan was around 400 gold, and the final difference is of order 10000 gold over 30 turns (30x400=12000). Now, Pan got some nice boosts from random events, but still, Ulm presumably got a better start.

Now all we need is for someone bored to run this kind of test enough times that we'd have an idea of variance

[FrankTrollman]

This was a 9 province start, just like the OP.

-Frank

[Meglobob]

I am a little surprised at how well luck/growth did. Overall thou, I personally based on Frank's test would take the 44,468 gold everytime. After all thats 10,278 gold extra over just 30 turns, nearly 25% more.

I wonder how Order 3/Luck 3 would do?

[Sheap]

Order and Luck are sort of a bad combination because order reduces event frequency. 25% increase in gold is nothing to sneeze at but it overlooks the fact that luck can do things for you that order can't, like get you items you can't otherwise make, improved chance of heroes, cross breeding, and other stuff not expressed in terms of gold. Sure, order/prod is probably better overall but not so much so that everyone will take order 3/misfortune 2 all the time like in dom2.