Niefelheim disasters--bug?

[Endoperez]

Epaminondas said:

By "original post," do you mean my post? If so, I said I had Turmoil 1, not Turmoil 3.

Yes, I did, and sorry about the confusion. I confused you with my neighbours in a recent blitz, both of whom had Turmoil 3.

[Meglobob]

There as been debates on luck before and no doubt there will be others in the future.

The problem is you can flip a coin 100 times and in theory it should come up heads 50 times aprox. and 50 times tails approx.

However, as any gambler will tell you, in practice you can have long runs of heads or tails. Sooner or later you will get 100 heads or tails in a row, a freak result.

Same in Dom3 with luck 3/turmoil 3, you may only have lets say a 10% chance at a bad event, but its possible to keep rolling that 10% turn after turn...

[Agrajag]

Also bear in mind that there are bazillions of Dominions players out there "flipping coins", so atleast one of us is bound to come up with such an unlikely streak

[Esben Mose Hansen]

Also, remember that the nation doesn't matter... only the current scale in the provinces conquered. Which is why good scales are so much more useful with high dominion.

In dom2, the way to get money seemed to be order 3/luck-3. In dom3, I have had better experience with turmoil 3/luck3, in fact for most nations I prefer dom9+,turmoil3,sloth3,luck3,growth3 as the way to get a ton of cash. Those 600,1000, and 3000g events really adds up.

As usual, please note that I rather suck at this game

[Hullu]

Sooner or later you will get 100 heads or tails in a row, a freak result.

Even 20 times in a row is pretty astronomical:/ 100 times in a row, nope, if everyone on this planet was flipping coins from their births to their deaths - most likely (very very very likely) they'd all die before anyone did 100 in a row.

[Meglobob]

Hullu said:

Even 20 times in a row is pretty astronomical:/ 100 times in a row, nope, if everyone on this planet was flipping coins from their births to their deaths - most likely (very very very likely) they'd all die before anyone did 100 in a row.

Ask a professional gambler or casino owners or bookmakers if you could flip a head 100 times in a row.

So long as there is a chance of something happening, sooner or later it will, it will be very, very rare but it will happen.

The odds of flipping a head 10 times in a row are only 1/1024, when you consider how many random rolls you must make in Dom3, you are bound to get a 'losing run' every now and then.

[PhilD]

Meglobob said:
The odds of flipping a head 10 times in a row are only 1/1024, when you consider how many random rolls you must make in Dom3, you are bound to get a 'losing run' every now and then.

Yeah, but flipping heads 100 times in a row are this to the 10th power - roughly, 1/10^30. This is really astronomically low. If every human being in existence (roughly 6.10^9 of us) tried this every second for a year (roughly 3.10^7 seconds), the probability of someone. somewhere, getting 100 heads in a row would be of order 1/5.10^13, not that much different from someone winning the "Loto" TWICE IN A ROW ("Loto" is a chance game where you pick 6 numbers out of a possible 49, and then exactly 6 numbers are rolled, and you "win" if you guessed all 6 - something you have about 1 chance in 40000000 of doing).

Or, to put it another way, if all 6 billion human beings had starded flipping coins around the Big Bang, a hundred flips per second, it would still be very unlikely that one of them had flipped 100 heads in a row by now.

Now, I'm the first to tell my students (I do teach probability theory, among other things) that if you try long enough, something extremely unlikely like flipping 100 heads in a row will happen. But it helps to have an idea of what "long enough" means. In this case, it's really long.

[Epaminondas]

Esben Mose Hansen said:
Also, remember that the nation doesn't matter... only the current scale in the provinces conquered. Which is why good scales are so much more useful with high dominion.

In dom2, the way to get money seemed to be order 3/luck-3. In dom3, I have had better experience with turmoil 3/luck3, in fact for most nations I prefer dom9+,turmoil3,sloth3,luck3,growth3 as the way to get a ton of cash. Those 600,1000, and 3000g events really adds up.

As usual, please note that I rather suck at this game

But it happened in my home province, Niefelheim. So the starting scales were in effect most of the game.